The Case for John Danks

 Well it appears that the Yankees are going to bring back Freddy Garcia, so technically with CC Sabathia resigned they could call it an off season with a rotation of Sabathia, Nova, Garcia, Hughes and Burnett but I really hope they don't do that. Garcia was good last year but a back end guy and what he really should do is compete with Burnett and Hughes for the 4th and 5th spot with the loser moving to the bullpen. That being said the Yankees should upgrade the rotation and there are a number of options for how they can do it of which I will be profiling.

Could Danks be a Yankee soon?

The best option may be Chicago White Sox starter John Danks who has had a lot of trade talk surrounding him this off season with White Sox GM Kenny Williams talking about rebuilding and trading Danks or Floyd. Danks is 26 and in his last year of arbitration and is coming off a down year in 2011. There was also a recent article by David Cameron on Fangraphs that showed the remarkable similarities between John Danks and Edwin Jackson despite the general assumption that Danks is a better pitcher than Jackson. Even Jackson's HR/9 and  HR/FB rates are better than Danks however it should be noted that Jackson has mostly pitched in pitchers parks while Danks has always pitched in the hitter friendly cellular field, but the point remains. While Danks may be overvalued it also could be argued that the fault is more in undervaluing Edwin Jackson. Some people have actually compared John Danks to Andy Pettitte  and there are some similarities and it would be great if Danks could emulate Pettitte as they are both big Lefties who grew up in Texas and their stats are pretty similar through their first five seasons. While Danks stuff may be a bit in question the reason that Danks could be such a good match is that the Yankees and White Sox may watch up well for a trade.

John Danks has actually gotten rocked in his six starts against the Yankees going 2-3 with a 7.11 ERA, giving up 25 ER in 31.1 IP. He got knocked around for four runs in six innings in one start against the Yankees in Chicago. He really hasn't pitched well against the AL East but other than the Jays he has pitched well against them away from Cellular field and his new one start at Yankee stadium in 2010 was decent. Granted past success doesn't dictate future success as A.J Burnett will tell you.

The White Sox are looking to rebuild and the Yankees have a bit of a logjam at a few positions of need for the White Sox. Ideally the Yankees would like to make a trade for Danks surrounding Francisco Cervelli but the the White Sox will probably ask for Eduardo Nunez or Austin Romine and the Yankees could center a package around either of those guys. While the Yankees could offer a package surrounding Nunez I find it much more likely that they will try and offer Romine with Phelps or Mitchell with another minor league piece or two, with the options of one of the out of options OF tandem of Dickerson,Maxwell, Golson or someone like Kevin Russo, a Cervelli package would probably look very similar as would a Nunez deal. The only way I can see the White Sox wanting Francisco Cervelli over Austin Romine is if they trade A.J Pierzynski and even then they may prefer Romine. More likely they will want one of the killer b's or Noesi or maybe someone like Mason Williams or Slade Heathcott. Even after a down year Danks is a very valuable piece but the Yankees aren't going to give up the farm for a guy who is one year away from free agency and that's why I would be surprised if they gave up Banuelos or Betances to get Danks. The off-season has only just begun and we probably wont see anything happen until after the winter meetings in December.

Yankees resign Freddy Garcia

The Yankees are officially bringing back sweaty Freddy for another year. Garcia resigned for one year $5 million which was about a million more than I thought he would get. The Yankees could theoretically call it an off season with this move but that would be a bad move for them as its very doubtful that they will get the same performance from Garcia that they did last year. I'm not as sold on this move as I thought I would be about this move because unless they trade Burnett or move Hughes to the bullpen they are paying $5 million a long relief/spot starter, a role that could easily be filled with an internal arm. Its not a bad move but they could be paying Garcia $5 million to rot in the bullpen all year. You can never have enough SP depth and this is exactly what Garcia gives the Yankees.

Best Moves for the AL East!

The AL east is the best division in baseball and it has possibly the three best teams in all of baseball. In the last ten years an AL East team has won six American league pennants and three world series. With the exception of the Orioles all the teams are competitive and if the last four years prove anything its that any of these teams could wind up winners.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are really bad and they are years away from competing again. They have not posted a winning record since 1997 and it seems all of their top prospects have fallen short or been injury riddled. The Orioles office and fanbase must be distressed to see the success of the Tampa Bay Rays who have fewer resources but have been competitive due to building on excellent player development. The Orioles really could use a complete reboot, but the organization is such a mess that multiple people have turned down the job to be the GM of the Orioles. They now are going to be moving forward with Dan Duquette as the GM, who last was the GM for Boston from 1994-2001. The Orioles will be futile for the next few years and the better move for them would be to try and build on undervalued pieces much like the Rays did in the beginning and focus on drafting and player development because their current system has not worked for them. The Orioles will however again overpay for a DH like Vlad Guerrero or Johnny Damon and could target a big name free agent, which is not what they should be doing right now. Blowing it up could be an option but I doubt that will help, because the issue seems to be player development, not a lack of talent. The best move may be to try and trade for some pitchers who can eat innings like they did with Tommy Hunter. A good pitcher for them to target would probably be Wandy Rodriguez as he pitches a lot of innings and does so with a sub four ERA in the last four years. That's a much better idea for the Orioles than trying to sign Prince Fielder. This is a long term project, which is unfortunate considering their lack of winning in the last 15 years.

Toronto Blue Jays
 The Jays have a nice crop of young players in the majors and in the minors and they currently posses an above average offense that will be boosted with the additions of Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie over a full year. The Jays seem like a middle market team but they are actually a big market team on par with the potential to be on par with Boston and New York. The reason the Jays aren't contending right now is that they are not quite ready for prime time as their pitching staff after Romero is still developing despite a plethora of young talented pitchers. There has been a lot of talk about the Jays trading for Votto and while it is very enticing for the Blue Jays to have a pair of talented young Canadian players at the infield corners, I think that trading for Votto will be more of an option next off season. The Blue Jays could be a breakout team for this season but I think 2013 is a much more likely possibility for them, as this year should be focused on developing their starters and figuring out what they will do at Shortstop, Second base and Left Field. The Jays currently have Yunel Escobar at Shortstop, but they have Adeiny Hechavarria who is number nine on the top ten shortstops prospects in baseball. For this reason the Jays will likely try and resign Kelly Johnson to a one year deal before transitioning Hechavarria or Escobar to second. Some people think that the Jays will pursue David Ortiz but they are much more likely to stick with Edwin Encarnacion at DH due to Encarnacion being under contract for 2012 for just $3.5 million and Ortiz's production likely to decline in the next few years. The Blue Jays could be in the market for a mid level starter and left fielder like David Dejesus or Edwin Jackson, but the only big name free agent I see them pursing is a top flight closer like K-Rod or Ryan Madson, but they could end trying for a bounce back closer like Joe Nathan or Jonathon Broxton. If the Jays spend big it could very well be for a Japanese import and they very well could be the best suitor for Yu Darvish as they have the monetary resources and less pressure to succeed immediately as he would in New York. The Jays will likely be active on the trade market as they have been part of three big trades the last two seasons and their plethora of prospects haven't been diminished through any of them. The Jays have a protected draft pick due to failing to sign their 1st round draft pick and so signing a type A free agent is a possibility but its more likely they develop their prospects for a serious run in the next few years.


Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were the ultimate chokers last year as they completely fell apart in every aspect in September. On top of that their rotation is now full of question marks as is the bullpen who just lost Jonathon Papelbon to the Phillies before they even had time to make an offer. Even if they move Aceves to the rotation then they open up another hole in their bullpen and still need to add another starter. They also are reportedly pursing Carlos Beltran and while this isnt a good move it may be the best option for them. Signing Beltran would be risky and they may be better suited to putting Josh Reddick in Right Field, but I think they will feel the need to make a big splash and signing Beltran could be that move. Reddick could very likely prove to be a valuable trade piece especially since the Boston farm system was proven to be not nearly as good as Boston had been claiming. The idea of Reddick for Wandy Rodriguez has come up and it could be a very good one for Boston to make as Wandy has pitched at least 190 innings for three years and the Astros are looking to move him. The good news for Boston is that they do not need to pursue top of the rotation arms, but they need to find a pair of back of the rotation arms and build depth because they have zero depth options in AAA as last seasons collapse proved. The Red Sox AAA depth is so bad that if D.J Mitchell had been with them he would have been the best rotation candidate by far and its possible that he will not even have a rotation spot at the Yankees AAA this coming season. The Sox will be looking for a bounce back year from Carl Crawford and a healthy year from Kevin Youkillis but will need good depth because neither is guaranteed to happen and Youkillis's health is even more in doubt. The Red Sox will likely have Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro for Shortstop and infield bench help, so the focus will be almost entirely on their pitching. While the Sox could try and sign the top free agent pitches, it would probably be better for them to invest in several low risk High reward pitchers like the Yankees did with Colon and Garcia.The Red Sox will also need to hope that Buchholz and Becket can stay healthy because they really can not afford anymore losses to their rotation and they both had trouble staying healthy. The Red Sox will want to have a good year and make the playoffs or else they will be looked at the number three team in the division behind the Yankees and Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays
 The Rays have been able to build a consistent contender with a limited payroll, no fan support and a bad stadium. The Rays actually have too much pitching depth and will likely trade one or more starters to try and boost their offense. The Rays could sign a veteran DH like they did with Johnny Damon but a better option may be for them to trade for options offense rather than sign it. The best fit is probably the Kansas City Royals who have 1st/DH prospect Clint Robinson who really should be in the majors but there is nowhere for him with Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler blocking him. A trade of Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann for Clint Robinson would seem to be ideal to me as he would provide the team with six years of a cheap DH rather than spending $5 million a year on older players. Also as good as B.J Upton is the team will probably look to move him for prospects and the team that will likely be the most interested is the Washington Nationals who could prove especially enticing if the team does not resign Casey Kotchman as they can trade prospect Chris Marrero who would also be a young cheap player under team control for several more years. The Rays could try and lock up Kotchman but that would depend on their beleif that this was a breakout year for Kotchman and that he can hit for the average that he did this season over the course of the deal. It may be better for the Rays to take the money they would give to Kotchman and a free agent DH and instead focusing on trying to extend David Price and Matt Joyce. The one problem for the Rays if they do trade B.J Upton then they will need to decide if they trust Brandon Guyer as the everyday left fielder because otherwise they will be having Sam Fuld take a lot more AB then he should. If the Rays can improve their offense then they could easily be the division favorites with the best rotation in the AL East. The biggest concern for the Rays however will continue to be how to get people through the door as consistent contention and three playoff appearances in the last four years hasn't been able to do it.

New York Yankees
The Yankees won the division despite the nearly universal assumption that the Red Sox would win. The good news for the Yankees is that they have no real holes and instead will be focusing on upgrading their rotation and possibly finding a LOOGY. Several options have been raised for the Yankees rotation but the two best are probably signing Yu Darvish and/ or trading for John Danks. The Yankees have a plethora of back of the rotation arms and they should definitely let Noesi, Warren and Phelps compete with Burnett and Hughes for their spots in the rotation. The Yankees want a top of the rotation arm and either could be that option but neither is guaranteed. People tend to bash Asian pitchers but just because Kei Igawa and Dice-K failed does not mean you should forget about players like Hiroki Kuroda who has been great since coming over. Its also entirely possible that the Yankees could retain Freddy Garcia and stop there but that would be a little surprising for them to skip out on the top pitchers two years in a row. The Yankees also have a lot of trade pieces that they will likely try to move as they are starting to create a logjam behind the plate and in the AAA rotation. The Yankees will almost definitely try and move Austin Romine or Francisco Cervelli this off season and will have to either move somebody to the bullpen or trade them. They could end up trading for prospects, bench or bullpen help or make a big deal for Starter or a Right Fielder. The best move for the Yankees after adding a starter would probably be to put Burnett on a short leash and if he starts to consistently struggle to move him to the bullpen and give one of the prospects a shot in the rotation, it sucks but the Yankees shouldn't be putting out a bad pitcher every five games if they have a better option. I would also recommend letting Joba try starting again as he comes back from Tommy John surgery because the worst case scenario is he doesn't seem to have it and you move him back to the bullpen while he rehabs, but I do not expect the Yankees will do this.

There is no clear favorite for the AL East this season and as we saw last year being the favorite means nothing. That being said how much better will the Sox and Yankees be if Carl Crawford, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira can have better years? And how good will the Rays be with Matt Moore, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson and David Price all in the rotation?

Best Moves for the NL East!

The NL East is considered by many to be the powerhouse of the National league and they currently have two great National League teams, two emerging NL teams and the New York Mets. All of the teams have interesting off season stories attached to them  and will be very involved in the free agent class as well as trade rumors.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves were the NL version of the Red Sox with an epic collapse in September that kept them from the playoffs. The Braves have been at the center of a lot of trade rumors as they have been shopping Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens as they seek to take advantage of their swath of young talented pitchers. The Braves will be looking for Jason Heyward to bounce back big time and for Chipper Jones to have one more good season before he finally retires. I don't think the braves will be looking to sign any big time free agents as the real reason for their collapse was that they overworked their bullpen so everybody was spent by the end of the season. The Braves want a lot for Jurrjens and that was why their deal with the Royals fell through, but if they do move him that means that untested pitchers will have to take on two rotation spots as the Braves have already traded Derrek Lowe. Perhaps the Braves could bring back Javy Vazquez if he chooses to keep playing but I do not think they will be able to get the players they want for Jurrjens. This team will likely be in the thick of the playoff hunt and will have a lot of rookies and second year players on the team but they did make it work last year with a similar situation.


Washington Nationals
The Nationals came very close to finishing above .500 for the first time since the move from  Quebec and finished the year 80-81. The Nationals have a strong crop of talented players that are almost ready for the big leauges and strong crop of young players already with the team. Some people think the Nationals will make a run at Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols but despite likely being active on the free agent market I doubt they will pursue these first baseman. Jose Reyes and C.J Wilson are possibilities but I think that the Nationals will likely end up trading for a starter or signing Edwin Jackson as this will be the first time they do not have a protected draft pick. If they do not sign a pitcher then their crop of young players could mean that they trade for a starter and a good fit would likely be Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros. The biggest need for the Nationals however is Center field and their were rumors during the season about them targeting B.J Upton or Denard Span and I think its very likely they will target B.J Upton again this winter. Adam LaRoche will also be coming back from his shoulder surgery last season and if he can play to near his career norms then he will could prove to be a very important trade piece as the Nationals will look to move Morse to first to clear the way for Bryce Harper in the outfield. If things go well for the Nationals then they could be looking at a playoff spot either in 2012 or 2013.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies were nearly universally picked to win the world series this season but ever since they won the world series in 2008 they have bolstered their rotation and still fallen short each time. In 2009 they added Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, in 2010 they added Roy Halliday and Roy Oswalt. Then in 2011 they added Cliff Lee and had Vance Worley emerge and yet they have gotten progressively farther away from the world series each year. The Phillies won 104 games last year and even with Ryan Howard missing the beginning of the season they should be favored to win the division. Their deal with Ryan Maddson appears to have fallen through and while they still may work out a deal the Phillies could also target Papelbon. The Phillies will look to again march their team to the postseason on their rotation and will likely retain Jimmy Rollins despite a need for them to go younger.

Miami Marlins
The Marlins are moving in to a new stadium in 2012 and will officially switch over to the Miami Marlins name. The Marlins are looking to spend and become a consistent contender and they do have some talented young players as well. The Marlins have been talking to several top free agents and could be the strongest suitors for Prince Fielder or Jose Reyes. They also will be in the market for a starter and I think that if the Rangers don't view Wilson in their future plans then the Marlins could be the best suitors. If the Marlins make the right moves then they could wind up being a contender not just this season but in the future. The real reasons behind these moves however is to repair the teams image after years of isolating the South Florida fan base despite two world series since 1997. This off season is probably more important to the Marlins than any team in the NL and possibly all of baseball, but the Marlins will have to pony up the cash and they will need to be the right moves as the wrong ones could leave the team with a lot of big contracts that they can not afford.

New York Mets
The Mets are a total mess and there is almost no chance for them to retain Jose Reyes and David Wright has been coming up in trade rumors. The financial situation was supposed to be solved before the season was even finished but its still a mess and the biggest move for them this offseason will likely be that they have moved the fences in at Citi Field. In the end I think the Mets will keep Wright for at least the beginning of the season and will look to add some low level players to the rotation like Jason Marquis or Rich Harden to add to a rotation headlined by a hopefully healthy Johan Santanna and R.A Dickey. The Mets have no chance of competing in 2012 unless the ownership financial situation is solved very shortly and are looking like they are several yeas away from being able to field a competitive team. The Mets also have to hope that Ike Davis come back healthy after playing in only 36 games last season.

Unlike last seaon the field appears to be more wide open for whom will win the division and Miami, Atlant, Washington and Philly are all going to be active this winter to try and get an edge in the playoff hunt. On an interesting note since 1993 the Phillies or Braves have won every NL East title except in 2006 when the Mets won, however during that time the Marlins have won two world series while the Braves and Phillies have each won one.

Best Moves for the AL Central!

Only two teams led the AL Central after the first two weeks and they were the Clevland Indians and the Detroit Tigers. My pick of Chicago White Sox got blown out of the water as the Tigers were the only team to finish over .500. The division is arguably the worst in baseball and every team in the division has major holes.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals are an up and coming team with a lot of young talented position players, in fact they have more prospects than they know what to do with. The one thing the Royals don't have is pitching, like no pitching whatsoever. They also have made the first major trade of the off-season by trading Melky Cabrera to the Giants for Jonathon Sanchez and therefor cleared the way for Lorenzo Cain in Center and added a potentially good piece to their rotation. Nobody knows how Sanchez will be for the Royals, but the Royals likely aren't done shopping for some pitching. If the rotation for the Royals can improve to a respectable level then Kansas City could be legitimate candidates to win the division. The Royals could pursue one of the top starters, but I think its more likely that they will pursue cheaper options than go after someone like C.J Wilson. Resigning Bruce Chen is a no brainier for me, but he wants a multi year deal and someone else could give it to him before the Royals do. A lot of people have picked the Royals as a breakout candidate for 2012 and they may have a point because this team has consistently had a top offense and their bad rotation is what has dragged them down.

Chicago White Sox
The Sox were arguably the most disappointing team  of 2011 and definitely had the most disappointing free agent signing in Adam Dunn. Dunn was supposed to hit 50 Home runs in Chicago but he would up hitting 11, with .159 BA. The White Sox rotation is probably the best in the division and for awhile they ended up being able to trade Edwin Jackson because of the emergence of Phil Humber. The White sox are now looking to get younger, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to be dumping salary and they absolutely wont be butchering their rotation. While they could move Zach Stewart into the rotation they have said that they would only trade a pitcher if they resign Mark Buehrle. The White Sox really don't have a lot of trade pieces outside of their rotation and they have some really bad contracts that they will have a lot of trouble moving. If I was the White Sox I would see what I could get for John Danks or Gavin Floyd even if Mark Buehrle signs elsewhere because they really need to try and get younger and while these players are young they can get a really good return for both of those guys.


Clevland Indians
The Indians had a great run this season but they are just starting to have their prospects going but the whole franchise is still a mess. The rotation is a mess and the one solid contributor of 2009 and 2010 in Shin-Soo Choo had a bad 2011 and going in to 2012 I have no idea what to expect from the Indians. They could win the division or they could lose 95 games, a big part of that will be how Ubaldo does in 2012 and the other part is what they do in their Outfield now that Grady is gone. Fukudome could be retained but they could try any number of players in the outfield. They could try for Cuddyer, Dejesus or Kubel but it depends on if the Indians think they can win in 2012.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins probably are the most disapointing team of 2011 because  everything went wrong for them. If they want to compete then Maur and Morneau will need to be healthy and Morneau hasn't been able to stay healthy for 3 years.  Cuddyer, Kubel, Capps and Nathan could all be gone in 2012 and the rotation is a total mess. Tsuyoshi Nishioka bombed and it was made worse by the success of 2010 short stop JJ Hardy and Nishioka is not even guaranteed to be a starter in 2012. The Twins going to need to try and turn things around next season but they may be headed to full on rebuild, but if they can make some good signings then this is still a team that could win this division especially if everyone can stay healthy and effective. They should try and resign Cuddyer or pursue Willingham and get a solid backup like Jose Molina. I also think that they should try some risk and reward typed players for their rotation and see if they can piece together a good rotation out of the scrap heap. As much as I should count them out this is a team that has been able to make idiot moves consistently over the last 10 years ans still somehow find ways to win.

Detroit Tigers
The Tigers had  a great season due mostly to Justin Verlander. Despite winning 95 games they dealt with a lot of injuries and they have question marks in RF, 3rd and at second. This team could make a play for any of the big time free agents, but even if they ignore all of their question marks they probably would be able to piece together a lineup based on what they already have that would the division in 2012. The Tigers could be in play for Aramis Ramirz but it would probably be better for them to just try Inge again at 3rd and see if he can be a contributor again and while they could try for a starting outfielder they could just as easily stick with Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch in the corner outfield. The best move for the Tigers would probably be for them to bring in veterans to spring training and have them compete with the existing option and see what happens. It would also be good for them to sign a 5th starter on a one year deal rather than give the spot to prospect Jacob Turner who has only had 3 starts at AAA.

The Tigers look like the best team in a weak division, but any of these teams could surprise everybody and breakout. The only one of these teams that will likely be considering signing major free agents is the Tigers but all the teams could be very active on the trade market this winter, especially the Royals who could definitely acquire another starting pitcher.

Best Moves for the NL Central!

In the last 20 years an NL central team has won the pennant four times and three of those times were won by the St.Louis Cardinals who have three pennants and two World Series in the last seven years. That being said they have had four different winners in the last four  years and the division could be wide open for 2012.

Houston Astros 
The Astros have no chance of contending in 2012 and they will be looking to dump salary with their new ownership. They traded their two best pieces last season in Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence for prospects and will try and trade Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and Carlos Lee for prospects as well. They could try for some bounce back players like Ben Sheets or Jamie Moyer, but they wont have any impact beyond that. Wandy will draw interest but they will not get the prospects they want unless they eat some salary which is exactly the opposite of what the new ownership will want to do. The Astros wont likely get much for Myers at the outset of the season but if he is pitching well then he could get something for them at the trade deadline as he is only under contract for 2012. Carlos Lee could be moved but they would get nothing but mild salary relief unless he tears it up before the trade deadline. The Rockies, Nationals and Red Sox could all be potential trade partners for Wandy or Myers and Astros can focus on rebuilding after all that money comes off the books.

Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates took a big step forward in 2012  and were in contention for a long while but they outperformed themselves. The Pirates will look to re-sign Derrek Lee, acquire a starting catcher and lock up Andrew McCutchen long term. The Yankees and Bucs almost had a deal for Francisco Cervelli last season and they could try again this off season or the Bucs could try for Ramon Hernandez. They will try Pedro Alvarez at third again this season but a strong backup is also a possibility. The Bucs biggest need is some upper rotation pitchers and while they could try for Edwin Jackson I expect that they will just try and develop their pitching prospects now that they have Gerrit Cole coming up. The Pirates would really benefit from signing Fielder but I seriously doubt they will make that impact on the Free agent market. Some key upgrades could mean that the Pirates will finally finish with a winning season and if Pedro Alvarez develops into a decent third baseman then the Pirates could be a top team in the NL Central soon.

Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have a new team president, General Manager and soon manager. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer will look to build a team that can win a world series, but first they will try and dump Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano. Cubs fans want the team to pursue Albert Pujols, but Fielder really makes more sense for the team as he is four years younger and can help the team in a few years when they can contend. Fielder will likely be the only big free agent they pursue as they will be looking to dump salary more than sign more big contracts. They may try and swap Zambrano for another bad contract like A.J Burnett, but dumping Soriano will be hard as he is under contract for the next three seasons. They could look to retain Ramirez, but some lower level free agents and bounce back players would likely be a better option for the Cubs. The resources of the Cubs are the best in the Division but they are still a few years away from contending and this is a rebuilding year for the team.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers screwed their farm system to win now, but if they can replace Fielders bat with a productive one then they can still win in this division. Their biggest area of need is really the left side of the infield with Casey McGehee and Yuniesky Betancourt unlikely to be retained, but their really aren't a lot of great solutions for them. They will likely try for a variety of different infielders as well as retaining utility infielder Jerry Harriston Jr who could start at 3rd or short if needed. With the money being freed up from Fielders contract there is a good chance they could pursue Jose Reyes who would really help the team. The Brewers can still contend this season but they will need to make good moves in order to do so. They could also still possibly retain Prince Fielder if a market for the First baseman doesn't develop, because the market after the Cubs is pretty hypothetical.

Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are arguably the most disappointing team in the national league, mostly due to their rotation which after Johnny Cueto was very poor and while they will be adding Aroldis Chapman to the rotation some more moves may be necessary, but due to their limited payroll they may just hope that other members of the rotation perform better. There has been some talk of trading Joey Votto, but he is a great player and still has two more relatively cheap years left and I expect that he will play at least one more year with the Reds before they really consider trading him. The Reds have real potential for 2012 but they will likely do it with primarily what they already have and will have to hope that 2012 goes better than 2011 did.

St. Louis Cardinals
The Defending World series champions biggest off season story will be their new manager and some guy named Albert Pujols. Their rotation will be better than last years with Adam Wainwright coming back from Tommy John surgery and their biggest need will be Shortstop and second base and they only need to retain Rafael Furcal to fill their need at shortstop. I doubt that they will want to start 2012 with Nick Punto at second base and could pursue someone like Clint Barmes or a lower level free agent like Mark Ellis. They could also try and put Allen Craig primarily at second, but he only had 8 starts at second since coming up in 2010. Pujols is the biggest story of the off season for the Cardinals and I expect that in the end they will show him the money.

Best Moves for the NL West!

The Last two years have been weird for the NL West with the Padres winning for almost the entire year, but then the Giants surged past the Padres who were slumping big time. This Year the Rockies and Giants looked like they would battle for the NL West, instead the Diamondbacks surprised everybody and won. Next year it could be anybody especially with the Dodgers ownership situation likely becoming clear relatively soon.

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers should be in play for Ramirez, Fielder and several other top free agents, but I doubt that their ownership situation will be solved in time for them to do almost anything but try and lock up Kemp and Kershaw. They will likely look for a deal in the Starting pitcher market and they are really only a few key pieces from running away with the division. Carlos Pena would be a good signing for the Dodgers, but the best fit would be Fielder if they can afford him.

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks don't really have any area where they need to acquire someone but they have a lot of places where they could upgrade especially the middle of the rotation and 1st base. They could upgrade the mid rotation, but I suspect that they will leave 1st to Paul Goldschmidt and see what happens. They also should try and resign Aaron Hill who played well for them and they really should get a lefty who is not named Zach Duke.  The Diamondbacks will need to do something about the back of their rotation and they may look to trade Joe Saunders for a pair of lesser arms that can still eat innings. The D-backs had a constant cycle at the 5th starter spot and even if they do not trade Saunders they should be able to find someone who can make 30+ decent starts over the season. The team may try for starters such as Rich Harden, Freddy Garcia or Kevin Millwood.

San Diego Padres
 The biggest move for them will likely be trying to resign Heath Bell and they could try for a lower level impact bat and hope that their prospects develop like they want them to. I still don't understand why they declined Harang's option because now they will have to fill another rotation spot and Harang pitched well for the Padres.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are a weird team that always seems like they have too many good players to not win more, but they have some serious holes and really no starting pitching. I expect that the Rockies will try and find gold with some underrated Starting arms and try for either Ramirez or to trade for a third baseman like Michael Young or David Wright. They have a lot of replacement level players in the everyday lineup and need to change that before they will contend. Young would really be perfect for them as would an upgrade in Left Field with Josh Willingham. I expect them to take some chances on the free agent market for starting pitching and it will be a big part of how their year will turn out, some good players might be Roy Oswalt, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon or Paul Maholm.

San Francisco Giants
The Giants pitching is arguably the best in all of baseball but they have no offense. If they want to win the division they will need to retain Beltran, have a healthy Buster Posey and find a position for Brandon Belt. They also are going to need a shortstop and could pursue bay area native Jimmy Rollins or the big name free agent Jose Reyes. The Giants are looking to make some moves but they have $44 million tied up in bad contracts and will need to extend Lincicum and Cain soon. Signing Beltran and a decent Shortstop could be all they need to win if Buster Posey can come back healthy. A good backup catcher is key for the Giants and if they keep Beltran then they probably can just stick with an outfield tandem of Cody Ross, Nate Schierholtz and Andres Torres in Left and Center field. If they miss out on Beltran its very possible they will go after Coco Crisp

The Only team I would count out of the Division title would be the Padres because any of the teams could end up winning if things go right for them.

Best Moves for the AL West!

Well I'm gonna start a series of posts about what the teams of each division need to do this off season and I will start with the AL west and conclude with the AL East.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers hadn't even won a home playoff game before last year and now they have won two pennants. The Rangers biggest need is their rotation, 1st base and center field and they have internal options for center and the rotation, they want to have Feliz and Ogando in the rotation next year if Wilson signs elsewhere. The only real need at first is that none of their 1st base options are positive defenders and that hurt them in the world series. It may also be time that they trade Michael Young because at this point he is undervalued as a DH, he can still play 3rd and 2nd but he's not a first baseman and they may be able to get more value out of him than they were able to get from the Rockies last year. I don't know how they feel about Leonys Martins development, but it would be ambitious to hand him the center field duties on opening day. They could also be players for someone like Carlos Pena or Coco Crisp but I don't see them making a lot of moves this off season.
Los Angeles Angels
The best move for the Angels would probably be for them to have not have done all of the dumb moves they have done in the last two years especially the Vernon Wells for Napoli trade which could possibly be one of the worst trades in my lifetime. They have Mike Trout coming up and nowhere for him to play and now they have to figure out where Trumbo and Morales will play next season. The worst part is that they probably would have won the Division last year if they had signed Beltre. the Angels 1-3 rotation is better than anybody else in the AL and they could sign Reyes or Ramirez and if they do I think they would be the favorites to win the Division.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have a ton of pitching and a lot of prospects and the biggest move they really need to make is to try and get rid of Chone Figgins. Past that their best move would be to find somebody to to play left field and they could pursue any number of unranked free agents to do so. They could go for a platoon LF spot and sign someone like Laynce Nix and have him split playing time with Casper Wells and that's probably the best thing for the Mariners. Next year will probably be a rebuilding year for the Mariners and really they would need Ichiro to bounce back if they want to contend at all. The Mariners do have deep pockets and could be contenders again in the near future.
Oakland A's
There are a number of things that the A's could do to get better but in the end they will not make any moves until their stadium situation is sorted out. A good move along that line could be to try and trade one of their starters to a team loaded with position player prospects like the Royals. They dump Brian Fuentes as well, its not that he's bad its just that they don't need him. They could also try for a reclamation project like Grady Sizemore.

I will have the NL West up soon

Top 50 Free Agent predicton

If you haven't seen MLB Trade rumors is having a prediction contest for the top 50 free agents and I thought I would give you mine as well as some justification for each.

1. Albert Pujols- Cardinals
They just built a freaking statue of the guy and who else is gonna pay him? He's a cardinal and always will be. If Epstein wants to make a big splash though he could target Pujols but the Cubs have a lot of holes.

2.Prince Fielder-Cubs
I don't really know if I can justify this that well but where the hell else is Fielder gonna go? Fielder is 4 years younger and will still be in his prime when the Cubs can contend again. He could return to the Brewers if the cubs aren't interested and the Nats and Marlins are also possibilities.
3.Jose Reyes- Milwaukee Brewers
I really have no idea where Reyes will go. He's not going back to the Mets and it seems like all the teams that need him don't want to show him the money. The Brewers have a hole at SS and 3rd and with Fielder coming off the books they will have some more money. I initially said the Angels but they never do anything that makes sense. The Nats, Giants and Red Sox are all possibilities.
4.C.J Wilson- Flordia Marlins
Wilson could end up with a number of teams, but it looks like the Rangers aren't that interested in resigning him unless his price tag is less than $80 million which it wont be. The Marlins have a protected draft pick and want to improve their rotation. Any contender and borderline contender could end up signing Wilson.
5. Yu Darvish- Yankees
Its all about the money and the Yankees have it. If they don't pursue him hard then the field is wide open but the Blue Jays would make the most sense.
6. Edwin Jackson- Washington Nationals
Next best option after Wilson and he is a type B free agent which is a bigger deal for the Nats because they have the first unprotected draft pick of the draft.
7. Jimmy Rollins- Phillies
The Phillies should probably go younger but they will likely retain Rollins. If they part ways the Giants will probably try and sign him.
8. Aramis Ramirez- Tigers
The best 3rd baseman on the market and signing him could make the Tigers a legitimate World Series Contender.
9. Carlos Beltran- Red Sox
Best Outfield bat available and the Red Sox are going to probably want more production than Josh Reddick can offer.
10. Jonathon Papelbon- Red Sox
While they may have wanted to make Bard the closer, they really wont have much of a choice other than to sign him. If bard fails as the closer then who would they turn to?
11. Michael Cuddyer- Phillies
The Phillies are disappointed with how they finished the season and a powerful Right handed bat that can play a number of positions will be very helpful.
12. Mark Buehrle- White Sox
Buehrle's agent says that he is open to playing anywhere but I don't believe him. However if he is serious then he could be of real interest to the Yankees.
13. David Ortiz- Red Sox
While some suggest that the Yankees could pursue him, that's not happening  and the Red Sox will need to retain his powerful bat.
14. Ryan Madosn- Phillies
 He's been with the Phillies his entire career and he will be there full time closer and look to cash in.
15. Hiroki Kuroda- Dodgers
He could help any number of teams but he dosen't want to play anywhere else.
16. Carlos Pena- Dodgers
 They would like to pursue Pujols or Fielder but they don't have the money. Pena has a good glove and a powerful bat and could really help the Dodgers in a weak division.
17. K-Rod- Jays
The Jays have a protected Draft pick and despite attitude problems he could help a Jays team that is looking to contend in the next few years.
18. Roy Oswalt- Rockies
The Rockies need pitching and nobody seems to think that Oswalt will be able to stay healthy
19. Javier Vazquez- Retires
He could play for any number of East coast teams but I think he will hang up his cleats on a high note.
20. Heath Bell- Padres
He wants to stay a Padre and said that he will accept arbitration if offered.
21. Coco Crisp- Giants
He wants to stay on the west coast and the Giants are a good fit for him.

22. Hisashi Iwakuma- Twins
The Twins really need pitching and they bid on him last year. He would be a good fit for the Twins but if he doesn't sign with them then any number of teams could sign him. 
23. Kelly Johnson- Jays
Look for him to be resigned by the Jays, but otherwise I think the Tigers would be the best fit for him.
24. Josh Willingham- Indians
 He is the lesser version of Carlos Beltran and could end up with any number of teams. However the Indians had little offense last year and they could either part with Fukudome or move him to center field. The Reds are a really good possibility if they will pay for him.
25. Paul Maholm- Royals
The Royals need pitching and will probably be stingy about their prospects.
26. Grady Sizemore- A's
A's will look to catch Sizemore's old stuff. Sizemore will get hurt though.
27. Bartolo Colon- Jays
Colon will look to show that last year wasn't just a flash in the pan and the Jays will hope to get another 160+ solid innings out of the former Cy Young winner.
28. Erik Bedard- Red Sox 
Good starter if he can stay healthy and the Sox are going to need Starting pitcher.
29. David Dejesus-Cubs
Good complementary piece for the Cubs. Mets are another possibility.
30. Jason Kubel- Twins
Its either Kubel or Cuddyer and Kubel is cheaper for the Twins.
31. Ramon Hernandez- Pirates
Pirates need a catcher and I would not be surprised if they traded for someone like Cervelli in addition to this signing.

32. Jeff Francis- Royals
 Royals probably shouldn't create anymore holes in their rotation and he did pitch 183 innings for them last year. Any number of teams could give him a look though.
33. Chris Capuano- Pirates
Good depth for a team that really needs to upgrade its pitching.
34. Tsuyoshi Wada- Mariners
Don't really know the guy but the Mariners or Dodgers make sense.
35. Clint Barmes- Twins
The Twins need a solid contributor in the middle infield until they figure out what to do with their younger players and Barmes works well for that.
36. Casey Kotchman- Rays
The Rays would love to retain Kotchman and he would like to return if they can pay him. If the Rays move on then he could end up any number of places.

37. Freddy Garcia- Yankees
He wants to return and the Yankees want him back. He will be in the Rotation or long releif.
38. Aaron Hill- Arizona
Hit very well for Arizona and they want to retain him.
39. Johnny Damon- Orioles
Veteran leader for a team that needs it. Could very well be retained by the Rays
40. Aaron Harang- Red Sox
The Sox need to rebuild their rotation and Harrang was good for the Padres last year.

41. Jamey Carroll- Tigers
 No power but they need a second baseman.
42. Rafael Furcal- Cardinals
 Shortstop will return to the world series champions
43. Juan Pierre- Reds
They need a left fielder and Pierre is better than nobody.
44. Frank Francisco- Tigers
Despite some solid late innings the rest of the Tigers bullpen was pretty crappy. Anybody looking for a solid reliever could get Francisco. though.
45. Jason Marquis- Mets
He's a New York guy who wants to play in New York and the Mets need a solid guy like Marquis in their Rotation. Cubs, Rockies and Twins are other possibility
46. Joel Pineiro- Cubs
Epstein will look to capture Pineiro's good stuff on a short deal.
47. Jonathon Broxton- Mets
Look for Broxton to sign with a team that will make him the closer for a year on an incentive laden deal. The Mets seem perfect.
48. Joe Nathan- Twins
In the end I think Nathan will go back to the Twins, but if they don't offer him much or he is really serious about playing for a contender then any team could make a play for him.
49. Kerry Wood- Cubs
Its Cubs or retirement for Wood
50. Bruce Chen- Royals
Chen wants to come back to the Royals where he has had success in their rotation over the last two years.  However Chen will want more money than the $2 million he made this year and will want more than a one year deal so if the Royals balk at that then any number of teams will try for him.