Weird Predictions 50 games in!

At the beginning of the season Brooke, Chris and I all came up with some odd prediction ideas instead of the normal home run leader and such predictions. Here is what we came up with based on absolutely nothing.

	Nick	Brooke	Chris
7th inning doubles	Alfonso Soriano	Brendan Ryan	Brett Gardner
Non-Nunez Errors	Kelly Johnson	Brendan Ryan	Carlos Beltran
Batters hit	Michael Pineda	Dellin Betances	Hiroki Kuroda
HBP	Kelly Johnson	Francisco Cervelli	Brian McCann

As of right now the Yankees have played fifty games and we have our leaders for all the categories
7th Inning doubles: Ichiro Suzuki 2
 That's right Ichiro leads the team with two doubles in the 7th inning and six players are tied for second with one, including Alfonso Soriano so I guess that means Nick is winning that category.

Non-Nunez Errors: Brian Roberts and Mark Teixeira 5
Non-nunez errors became a moot point as Nunez was traded to the Twins, but Johnson, Ryan and Beltran all have errors so they can defiently still catch up to Tex and Roberts.

Batters hit: CC Sabathia 4
CC was a surprise as the leader here as he hit four batters all last season, but he could easily lose the lead as he is currently on the disabled list, but of our predictions only Kuroda has actually hit a batter and he hit one so it will take some work.

HBP: Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira 3
fun fact Tex should actually be leading this with four but Tex was ruled to have swung at a pitch that hit him even though he obviously didn't, but you can't review that. So here is the only category where someone has the correct pick with Chris picking McCann.

So as of right now Chris leads with one correct answer. Update in fifty games, im sure you will all be keeping track.

The legend of Yangervis

Yangervis in action

The last two season Yangervis Solarte was one of the better hitters on the Texas Rangers AAA team, The Round Rock Express, but he did play in the PCL which is a league known for inflating offensive numbers and was not someone that would be considered a potential contributing big league player, keep in mind that his offense in AAA was something new as he had spent the previous seven years in the Twins organization not hitting, this is a guy who only signed with an agent because his uncle Rodger Cedeno asked his own agent to do so as a favor.  Which is why when the Yankees signed him to a minor league deal, nobody gave him any consideration as he looked like one of the many players that's brought in who had no shot of making the team. However Eduardo Nunez had dreadful spring, Brendan Ryan was hurt and so Solarte's great spring earned him a spot on the opening day team and he carried over his hot spring to a great start to the season and now its the middle of May and he still has not stopped hitting, in fact he is second in the American league right now in batting average.
On top of that Solarte is helping out in the field as he has played second base, third and even a little short stop and while he is not what you would ever call a good fielder, he inst a bad one either and his versatility really helps the team. In many ways I think that Yangervis is the player that the Yankees wanted Eduardo Nunez to become, a high contact infielder who doesn't hurt the team with his defense. The real problem for everyone is how Solarte just came out of nowhere and has been such a success, but I think we as fans are waiting for for bubble to burst; Solarte has been so successful and so out of nowhere that we don't believe it. Personally I have trouble believing it, he was 0-11 coming into the second game of the double header this weekend  and that doubt started creeping into my mind and then he went 2-4 with a clutch home run that was no Yankee Stadium special. If Solarte had been a prospect then Yankees fans would be ecstatic and not stop talking about this guy, but he really has not gotten much media attention despite his great play, really the Yankees have two Rookie of the year candidates on their roster right now in Solarte and Tanaka. Solarte has been a godsend for the Yankees as he has been able to be an everyday infielder for them on this team and turned the infield into a place where they must upgrade before the end of may into lets find a player who is better than Brian Roberts or Kelly Johnson before the trade deadline.
The thing everyone was watching Solarte for was his high BABIP to start the year and his .313 BA is supported by a .322 BABIP, but thats not so far out of the range of possibilities to be true and really we have no data to really know what Solarte should be doing and none of his batted ball numbers really jump out as way to good to keep going, his line drive percentage are right around league average and his ground ball percentage of 41% is a little better than the league average of 44%, obviously these numbers could change quickly but they are pretty exactly where we would expect this type of hitter to be at. Solarte's good line drive rate and low ground ball rate do help us believe that his numbers aren't just ground balls getting through but are coming from solid contact and if you have watched any of his game you would see that for yourself.
Another factor that some thought would hurt Yangervis is that often with guys first coming up they see a lot of fastballs but then teams start to adjust and diversify the pitches they throw the hitter and the hitter will regress, many people thought this would happen to Yangervis but now its May and he is still hitting, in fact according to fangraphs he has hit Sliders better than any other pitch and other non-fastball pitches haven't slowed him down much either.
There is also the fact that Solarte has been very good in terms of his walks and strikeouts, he currently sits at exactly 17 walks and 17 strikeouts which works out to 11% for each which is the lowest strikeout rate for anyone on the team with at least 100 Plate appearances and second in walk rate behind Mark Teixeira, although Yangervis is actually ahead of Teixeira in total number of walks due to Mark missing some time. His walk rate shows that he is not a hacker going up there and just getting lucky by putting the first pitch into play, he is showing plate discipline seeing 3.89 pitches per plate appearance which would rank him 4th on the team behind Gardner, Ellsbury and McCann. But we are still not believing this and it fells like Yangervis has really gotten very little press outside of New York and really not much local coverage either.
At this point we still don't know what Yangervis Solarte is, is he a flash in the pan or is he a legitimate big league contributed, at this point I don't know and I really don't think anyone really does but when I see him hit a home run like this:

I really think "maybe this guy can make it work, after all he wouldnt be the first guy to break into the big leagues as a solid player at age 26; Dan Uggla did it with the Marlins in 2006 after being taken in the rule 5 draft from the Diamondbacks and while he has been bad these last two years in Atlanta he was a very solid player for the previous seven seasons in Atlanta and Florida averaging around three Wins above replacement in each season, the Yankees would take that production from Yangervis in a second and they also have the versatility to acquire another infielder as they can easily play Yangervis at either Second or Third base. At this point even if Yangervis stopped hitting altogether, the Yankees have already gotten more production out of him then they would have dreamed of back when they first signed him and everything after this is just addign to the legend that is Yangervis.

Keep Alfredo Aceves in the pen

Alfredo Aceves

Last Sundays game against the Rays was not a good one as CC Sabathia had another poor outing in only three and two thirds innings and then in came Alfredo Aceves who wound up pitching the rest of the game and only gave up three hits and no runs. This caused some people to clamor for Aceves to be in the rotation based on that performance. I am here to tell everyone to hold off on that for now, because Aceves might be of more value where he is.

Alfredo Aceves was with the Yankees from 2008  through 2010, during his time with the team though he served as a versatile pitcher, starting several games, coming in for high leverage innings and doing that odd piggyback starter thing that the Yankees did with Joba Chamberlain where Joba would pitch 3-4 inning and then Aceves would come in for about the same. After the 2010 season  he was non tendered by the team after missing most of the season with a back injury of which the Yankees did not think he would come back from. Some fans were upset about this, including myself, especially when Aceves  ended up signing with Red Sox and pitched well  for them in 2011 with a 2.61 ERA over 114 innings, mostly as a reliever but with a few starts. The next two seasons did not go as well with Aceves pitching poorly in both the bullpen and the Red Sox rotation, he ended up being demoted to the minors last season and then cut him after the, he was with Orioles in spring training before opting out and then signing a minor league deal with the Yankees. Its easy to think that these five inning wipe away what has really been poor pitching the previous two season but lets be real, its very possible that his pitching on Sunday was a complete and total fluke. It would not be the first time a pitcher came in an d pitched well in a small sample size, I remember Lance Pendelton has a three inning relief debut a few years ago in which he was perfect and people were wondering if he could be something and he wasn't, he was just a nondescript reliever who the Rangers made look very good in one game.
I really hope that Aceves outing is a sign that Aceves can be effective in the future but for now I think the best place to keep him is in the bullpen as the Yankees really need someone effective in the back-end of their bullpen as the Chris Leroux and Bruce Billings of the bullpen have not just been bad, they have been astoundingly awful and while that may seem like a pretty minor but the complete meltdown of the bullpen in many of these games has turned a deficit into a complete blowout and squashed any chance that the Yankees had to come back in these games.Aceves looks like he could the guy that they need who can come out of the bullpen and give the team some length and be effective.

The other factor in this is a very simple one, Alfredo Aceves has been better as a reliever than as a starter.



The ERA isn't too different between starting and reliving, but the big one for me is his strikeout to walk ratio, as a reliever its 2.76 SO/W in 288.2 innings while as a starter its an even 42 walks to 42 strikeouts and this is over 15 starts. Everything about Aceves's numbers says that he is better as a reliever than as a starter  4.29 ERA as a starter, compared to  3.46 as a reliever and the Yankees already have some mediocre pitchers in their rotation, would Aceves really be any better? I personally doubt that he would be any upgrade over Nuno or Phelps right now, however he would probably be my top choice if the Yankees needed another starter but lets hope they do not need one anytime soon. Fortunetly it does appear as though the Yankees have any

So April just happened

It doesn't feel like April was that much of a success because the infield still stinks and we lost Pineda for a month on top of his suspension and Nova is out for the year, but the Yankees lead the division with 15 wins, which is actually tied for second in the American league. Its April and so small sample sizes still abound, remember Vernon Wells was hitting .300 at this point last season with six home runs and people were asking if Wells could be a brilliant move from Cashman, but Wells hit .216 with five home runs and twenty walks the rest of the year and everyone went back to deciding Cashman was an idiot. April is a lie and it has always been one, but the Yankees have shown real promise in a lot of areas, while they also shown that they will need to upgrade others at some point.
At the end of April the Yankees are currently fifth in batting average and 6th in OPS in the AL which is not bad, but their rotation has been unimpressive behind Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda and that will need to change as Kuroda and Sabathia simply need to be better if the Yankees want to win this season and now with the injury to Nova they will likely need to look to trade for a starter or hope than Manny Banuelos can take a huge leap forward and contribute this season because he is likely their best hope in terms of a home grown starter who can be a positive force for the team, otherwise they will need to look to acquire a starter.Its obviously too early to look for who might be available but two names that jump out at me are Cliff Lee because duh and the other is Brandon McCarthy, there is nothing particularly special about McCarthy except that he has been a solid pitcher in the past and he is playing on the absolutely awful Arizona Diamondbacks who seem more likely than anyone to blow up their team and McCarthy seems like a guy who they would be likely to move, however Kevin Towers may decide that McCarthy, who was struck on the head by a line drive in 2012, is too gritty be traded or he may also decide he is not gritty enough; Towers seems to make odd decisions with personnel. Lee is pretty obvious but I doubt that the Phillies will move him because they also make odd personnel decisions and they are very unlikely to trade him in May when they may be playing well.
The other position that the Yankees need help in is there infield and its not really specific of where they would need that help as they need somebody to play either second or third and preferable a young player who could move to short stop next season, but trading for a player like would be hard as most of those players are either starting for a team or the team is looking to move an older veteran so that he can start. Obviously Brian Roberts has not been very good but its really too early for us to see who is interested in making deals and with the new playoffs it seems like teams stick it out much longer because they cling to this idea that they will be able to contend. The Yankees were tied to Didi Gregorius in the off season, but the awful Diamondbacks would seem more likely to try and move someone so that Gregorius can start everyday and they have two players that they could possible trade to clear a spot in Martin Prado and Aaron Hill both of whom would likely interest the Yankees.The player I think the Yankees would prefer is Martin Prado who is a versatile player capable of playing either third or second base, but I think the Diamondbacks are more likely to try and trade Aaron Hill who is strictly a second baseman and has not been a very good defensive one these last two years. In 2012 Hill hit .302.360/.522 with 26 Home runs  and won a silver slugger but only played 87 games last season after suffering a hand injury in April, he would obviously fit well for the team but I am not sure how the Yankees will feel about him being under contract for the next two season, they may find it a boon or they may not like it the money however is fairly reasonable at $12 million a season in 2015 and 2016 and Hill will be 34 when the contract expires so it is not a bad deal, we also have no idea if the Diamondbacks want to move him. Another player that the Yankees could have interest in is Chase Utley who while not an MVP candidate anymore is still a very good player and only under contract for next season, although he does still have vesting options for 2016-18 that depend on him having 500 PA in the previous season. Utley would likely be a huge addition for the team but he is also one of the better players on the Phillies and they do not have a younger player looking to push him out just yet, even at 35 I do not see the Phillies moving him unless they are completely lost by the trade deadline. Another player could be Nick Franklin of the Mariners and there is some intrigue here as the Mariners need help but Nick Franklin doesn't have a lot of history because he is a prospect and I do not really know what the Mariners are going to want for him, probably a similar player but the Yankees do not really have a good prospect who is stuck behind a solid major league starter and other than that I have no idea what they will want, especially in April. Other than these guys its still way too early to talk about a possible trade for anyone and honestly its too early to talk about a trade for these guys either but I did it anyway. The Yankees will need to make a move eventually though as they cannot expect Solarte to keep playing this well, it just likely will need to be later this year.