Winter is upon us

So the Baseball season is officially over and now the off season officially begins. As of 9am today Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, Boone Logan, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Robinson Cano, Lyle Overbay, Mark Reynolds, Brendan Ryan, Kevin Youkilis, Curtis Granderson and Travis Hafner are all free agents and no longer members of the New York Yankees. There is a very real possibility that none of these players will be on the Yankees next year which is a very odd thought to consider. The off season is an interesting time as every time can feel like they can be contenders in the following season, but just remember that the only winner of the off-season to win it all in recent memory is the 2009 New York Yankees, the Marlins, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels have all been declared the winners of one off-season or another and failed to even make the playoffs, let alone win the World Series (obviously I mean in the year they were the off-season winner). Overall the Yankees do not look very good for next year as they are dealing with the A-Rod saga, an unproductive farm system, the Robinson Cano watch and the fact that their Hated rival just won the World series. Here are a few dates to watch in the next 10 days.

Today
As I said all eligible players become free agents.

Monday (November 4th)
Its the last day to make qualifying offers and all players have to come off the 60 day D.L. Cano, Granderson and Kuroda will get qualifying offers and I guess there is an outside chance that Phil Hughes gets one, but that seems unlikely. They also will need to hear if Derek Jeter plans to pick up his $9.5 million player option

Tuesday (November 5th)
This is the day free agency really begins as its when the exclusive negotiating period ends and teams can sign with anybody. The Yankees could make a push, but it seems like Cano will test free agency and I don't know if there is anyone else the Yankees will try and I don't know if there is anyone else the Yankees will go after before the 5th.

November 11th
This is the last day for a player to accept a qualifying offer, but I expect that Cano and Kuroda will both decline. Granderson is an interesting case as there is interest from teams to give him a multi-year deal but if he thinks he can have a great season and rebuild his value then he could set himself up for a much bigger payday if he accepts the offer.

November 20th
Deadline to add players before the rule 5 draft, which takes place on December 12th. Prospects Slade Heathcott and  Gary Sanchez are the most notable players who have to be added to the 40-man roster. The Yankees will undoubtedly add more and I usually do a 40 man crunch post during the off-season.

December 2nd
This is the non-tender deadline, in which teams can choose to not offer a player who is arbitration eligible a contract. Jayson Nix, Francisco Cervelli and Chris Stewart are all non-tender candidates. I would hope they would non-tender Stewart but he will probably wind up being their starting catcher again next year.

After this you have the winter meeting from December 9th-12th and then arbitration hearings start in February but the Yankees haven't gone to one since 2008. They do have seven arbitration eligible players whom MLB trade rumors has projections for.

So now it begins, hopefully everything goes amazing for the Yankees and we wind up having a team that will knock off the Red Sox. Who knows maybe seeing the Red Sox win will lead the Yankees to make some serous changes to the team or there front office.

The Yankees LVP: CC Sabathia

The Yankees LVP

 

To determine who on the Yankees deserves the Least Valuable Player for 2013 you have to look at who had the worst bang for the Yankees buck. The easy choice would be to say A-Rod but I don't think it is fair to say any Yankees player that missed a lot of time for injuries was the LVP. That would also rule out Jeter, Granderson, Youkilis , and Teixeira. That rules out 5 of the top 10 highest paid Yankees. Leaving Sabathia ($23 mil), Cano ($15 mil), Kuroda ($15 mil), Pettitte ($12 mil) and Rivera ($10 mil) as the highest paid Yankees. Cano, Kuroda, and Rivera all performed well in the 2013 season, leaving Pettitte and Sabathia as the only real contenders for the award.

So now let’s compare Andy Pettitte and C.C Sabathia's stats. Andy Pettitte ended the season with an 11-11 record, a 3.74 ERA, and a 1.327 WHIP over 185.1 innings pitched. CC Sabathia on the other hand ended the season with a 14-13 record, a 4.78 ERA, and a 1.370 WHIP over 211 innings pitched. If we look at this, it appears that Pettitte had a little bit of a better season, but if you take into account that Sabathia made eleven million more in 2013, then it’s clear who should win the LVP: CC Sabathia. He had performed so well the previous season, dominating in the playoffs. He went 15-6, had an ERA of 3.38, and a WHIP of 1.140, much better than this season. Many people say that the reason he has declined so much is because Sabathia lost so much weight over the off-season. When the season started Sabathia seemed to be off, and the entire time people were saying that he would work it out, that his velocity would go up, and so would his control, but it never did. So the Yankees spent $23 million on a pitcher who did not preform in 2013. I am actually a big Sabathia fan, and am hoping that he can bounce back in the 2014 season, if not, then that is a lot of Yankee money down the drain.

Tanaka over Kuroda

(Koji Watanabe/Getty)

Hiroki Kuroda was the Yankees best starter this year and he would have been an all-star this year if Jim Lelyland had the sense to see that win-loss isn't important but I guess neither is bringing in a lefty to face David Ortiz. The fact of the matter though is that Kuroda is winding down his career and may in fact retire, so he doesn't really hep the rotation long term. However Kuroda is proven in the MLB while Tanaka isnt and everyone fears the Japanese player coming over and busting like Kei Igawa or underperformed like Dice-K or Hideki Irabu and so Japanese players become untouchable to them. In fact the Yankees subscribed to this logic after getting burned by Igawa and so they did not want to pursue Yu Darvish, but with their plan to get under the $189 million budget Tanaka is someone they should definitely go after. The Yankees have a definite interest in him as they have sent their top evaluators to watch him pitch, which is definitely a step up from their scouting of Igawa which as essentially none, but with Tanaka they reportedly have been to almost all of his starts. First off Tanaka would need to be posted and that posting fee would not apply against the luxury tax and while the posting system may change this off season as the MLB and NPB renegotiate the system, I doubt very much that the posting fee will apply to the Luxury tax after the negotiations.
 Secondly Tanaka has been fantastic in Japan, posting a 1.24 ERA with a WHIP of 0.934 and his career numbers are all excellent, especially considering he made his debut in 2007 when he was 18 and it wasn't a cup of coffee either he pitched 28 starts and threw 186 innings that season. Via Ben Badler Tanaka reportedly sits in the low-90s with a fastball that touches 96, with a low-80s slider and a mid-80s splitter, the splitter is apparently very common is the Asia Leagues. Badler says scouts have some concern because he doesn’t get good plane on the pitch and it’s more hittable than the velocity suggests, which is why he is profiled as a number 2 and solid contributor rather than a Cy Young contender. Kuroda isnt a Cy Young contender but that doesn't somehow invalidate him as a pitcher, the Yankees need solid pitchers and while Kuroda has already proven that he can be a solid contributor, Tanaka could be one for years to come and could do so at a much lower cost than signing Matt Garza. There are so many people out there who say that the Yankees shouldn't do it because he might be the next Igawa, but you know what so might Matt Garza or Tim Lincecum and the Yankees (and their fans) should not refuse to acknowledged this guy because they are afraid of what happened before. There have been some very successful Korean and Japanese imports outside of the notable failures of others as Iwakuma, Ryu and Darvish all had great seasons. This is the simple fact of the matter the Yankees farm system has failed to develop one impact player outside of Brett Gardner or the bullpen since Robinson Cano and they need to catch up, signing Tanaka would be a huge way to catch up, he rotation could suddenly become a plus. The title of this article is honestly a bit misleading as I don't even think the Yankees should really spurn Kuroda for Tanaka its just that if it comes down to it I would much rather have Tanaka for the next several years than to hold on to Kuroda for one more year.

A True Yankee award picks

Pretty straight forward here, at the end of the season an MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the year award are all given out to someone in each league who is selected by eligible baseball writers. I say someone because the winner is many times not the best but simply whomever the writers decide is the best, which is true in all sports I guess, but its more subjective in the MLB.  Many writers disqualify players from teams who don't make the playoffs and will occasionally decide that Pitchers qualify or don't qualify for the award, somebody actually gave Michael Young a first place MVP vote in 2011 and Ryan Howard came in tenth in the NL vote that year with his 1 win above replacement. Its a very odd process but unfortunately baseball writers like to make this more about themselves than anything else, which comes as no surprise because they do the same thing with everything else. Anyways though here are Nick, Brooke and Chris's picks for who should win the hardware.


Nick
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
I know the sexy pick is Max Scherzer, and Scherzer does lead the AL in pitcher WAR but despite Sale's 11-13 record I think he has had a better year than Scherzer. Sale plays in a big time hitters park, he has walked fewer batters and pitched more innings despite pitching in two fewer starts than Scherzern because Sale has four complete games and Scherzer has none. Sale leads Scherzer in ERA and xFIP, and honestly if Sale wasn't on such a terrible team or Scherzer didn't have twenty wins then Sale would be the favorite.

AL MVP: Mike Trout
I know Mike Trout isn't going to win the MVP but he absolutely should and you cant even make the argument that his 10 WAR is all coming from his defense this season as he has rated much lower defensively this season than it did in last year, in terms of dWAR. With how much injuries have hurt Miguel Cabrera in the last month he should probably should be behind Josh Donaldson, but this is all because of him needing to play third everyday, I know he can make the throws but he just doesn't have the body for it anymore.

AL ROY: Will Myers
The AL Rookies are a mess as Myers and Iglesias are the only names you have ever heard of and those two along with David Lough are the only three rookies in the AL with a WAR above 2, and Lough is 27. Its really Myers or Iglesias and honestly it could easily be either of them but I will go with Myers for the Power he has shown.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
If Matt Harvey was healthy I might pitch for him to get the Cy Young, but Kershaw's season has been extremely impressive, Not just for the ERA or strikeouts but the guy has a WHIP of 0.928 which is just insane. He will win his second CY Young in 3 years. I re-watched the Kersahw v Pettitte game from 2010, the one where the Yankees came back against Broxton and the announcers were talking about how Kersahw might be almost as good as Strasburg, funny in retrospect.

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen
The NL MVP race doesn't have a great candidate much like the 2011 AL MVP race didn't, so don't be surprised if Kershaw gets the MVP. McCutchen has had another great year and ranks behind only Mike Trout in WAR. For whatever reason a lot of his Home Runs from last year have turned into doubles this year, but he still has 20 HR on the year.

NL  ROY: Jose Fernandez
The favorite pick is Puig, but I think people are starting to appreciate just how great a season Fernandez had and he is only 21. Remember Fernandez came out of High A to start in the majors and everyone thought this was an insane idea but it worked out brilliantly for the Marlins.


Chris
AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
You could make an argument for others but his K rate is insane and ERA and Whip are off the charts good.

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
Best hitter in baseball. End of story.

AL ROY: Will Myers
Who the hell else is there? Seriously I wish they could just give this to the field.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Do I even need to explain this?

NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt
Top of all offensive category and a good defender too. Really made the Diamondbacks relevant in the NL wildcard push.

NL  ROY: Jose Fernandez
2.19 ERA, a sub 1 WHIP, and was able to get a 12-6 record on a dreadful team, honestly if he was in the AL I would give him the Cy young.

Brooke
AL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
I would love to say Mariano Rivera, but Max Scherzer's stats are in another galaxy.

AL MVP: Mike Trout
I believe he has closed the gap with Miguel Cabrera.

AL ROY: Will Myers
Is there anyone other than Will Myers? A disembodied hand? That guy who ran on the field in a body suit (that took grit)? The field? Anyone? Bueller?

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw, enough said.

NL MVP: Freddy Freeman
Paul Goldschmidt is the obvious choice, but I'd prefer to see it go to Freddy Freeman and if not him then Andrew McCutcheon.

NL  ROY: José Fernandez
Out of this world good and potential Cy Young material if he were in the AL or not up against Kershaw. He will get CY votes though.

So surprisingly Puig mania has worn off already and none of us picked him for NL Rookie of the Year, all three of us picking Fernandez over Puig. How about the fact that there are 11 NL rookies with an equal or higher WAR than Will Myers AL leading 2.1 WAR. How about three different NL MVP's or two of us going with Trout over Miggy. We shall see what happens.

Zoilo Almonte and chances for Young Players

You have no idea who this is

This season the Yankees set a team record by having 56 total players play for them over the course of the season, 12 of them were rookies and 9 made their debut this season. Some of these guys got decent looks because the Yankees needed them to fill holes, Zoilo Almonte, David Adams, Preston Claiborne and Austin Romine all got a good amount of playing time at some point this season. Inevitably problems rose up for each one of these players, Zoilo sprained his ankle in July and when he returned in September the Outfield situation had moved on without him. Austin Romine came up and really struggled after Cervelli's injury but after he started to pick it up in the second half the Yankees still played Chris Stewart over him and then Romine went down with a concussion that has still prevented him from playing. Preston Claiborne started off great for the Yankees out of the bullpen but struggled in August and September with an ERA over five in that time. Adams had a nice start to his Yankee career with two Home runs in his first seven games, but he struggled after that and hasn't really gotten much playing time in September.
Part of the reason for the lack of use of these guys is that they struggled so the Yankees went with other players because they felt that they gave them the better chance of winning. However this doesn't work for Romine or Almonte and is part of the issue that the Yankees have with developing players, the Yankees don't really like rookies and will almost always go with the veteran over a rookie every time. This season Ichiro has had a few nice stretch's but overall he looks like a declining player, because that's what he is and no two week period where he hits .280 will change that or the fact that the Yankees need to pay him $6.5 million next season. Ichiro needs to be benched but the Yankees have kept playing him despite the fact that he has hit around .200 over his last 22 games. Zoilo should be starting right now and he should be looking at making the team out of spring training next season and instead he hasn't gotten any playing time in September and will likely have to go back to Triple A because Vernon Wells and Ichiro are going to be ahead of him despite the fact that he may give the Yankees a better chance to win than either of them. Before the team didn't have a spot for him but after Gardner's injury there is really no excuse to not play him and now that the team is all but eliminated they should really be playing him but they wont. Adams, Romine and JR Murphey should also be playing, obviously Romine can't but he should have been before he got hurt, seriously the Yankees look pathetic right now and we all know that they needed to play their best to make the playoffs and instead they have laid stinker after stinker and look to have essentially given up on making the postseason so why not trot David Adams out there at third everyday and have Murphy start at catcher a few days in a row? Its not going to hurt anything at this point, are you really telling me that Dellin Betances doesn't deserve a shot over Joba, who has been awful all year? I'm not saying that the Yankees need to hand the keys over to the kids all next year but at this point there are only nine games left and the Yankees are 3.5 games out and would need to jump three teams, start Adams, Almonte and Murphy in at least some of those nine games. Giving the kids is something that the Yankees need to do if they want to develop some young talent.

The Predictable failure of the Catching tandem

Nobody listens

Russel Martin signed a two year deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates this off season and despite the fact that the Yankees could have matched the offer or signed him to a 1 year $10 million deal but the Yankees declined that in favor of having Chris Stewart as their starting catcher. As you may remember Stewart was supplanted by Francisco Cervelli but after only 17 games Cervelli was hurt and Stewart became the starter again. In the first half Stewart didn't play well but he hit .241 with three homers so some people were able to pretend that he did well. In the second half he nosedived offensively and at this point in the year he is basically a replacement level player. This could be attributed to either him wearing down or the fact that he got exposed in more playing time. Martin on the other hand put up similar numbers to his two years in pinstripes and has been praised for his handling of the pitching staff in Pittsburgh.
The sad fact is that GM Brian Cashman knew this would happen and wanted to sign Martin but ownership overrode him and let Martin walk, instead they spend $13 million on Ichiro who if he wasn't a name and didn't have another year on his deal would likely have been cut by now.  I wish I could say that the Yankees will fix this problem in the off season with free agent Brian McCann, but I do not honestly expect them to. The Yankees could have tried to see if Austin Romine could handle the starting job but instead they stuck with alternating the two so we never got an extended look at Romine and now he is out with a concussion. Unfortunately I feel resigned to the fact that we are going to have to see the Yankees trot out Chris Stewart as the starter again next season which is just insane for the New York Yankees to do two years in a row.
The worst part is how everyone saw this coming, nobody thought oh gee Stewart as the starting catcher that will work wonderfully and yet the Yankees did it and Cervelli as the backup who could have seen that coming unless we look at the fact that he has been injury prone for his entire career. Austin Romine wasn't ready for the big league when he got called up because everyone knew he wasn't going to be ready as he had only had 17 games at Triple A last year and his year before had also been shortened due to injury. I don't know what convinced the Yankees that Stewart starting would work but clearly they were wrong, but rather than admit this they have just kept going with it and very possibly will keep going with it into next season.

Derek Jeter: How I was right all along

RAY STUBBLEBINE/REUTERS

In May I wrote The End of Derek Jeter? I wrote about how expecting him to come back and really play shortstop at all was just wrong. I said that at 39 and coming off a broken ankle he just would not be able to do it and unfortunately I was right. Derek Jeters season ended yesterday and he managed 17 games, 12 hits and had four stints on the DL if you include this one and the one he had coming into the season. I was at both of the first two Jeter returns to Yankee stadium games and in those I managed to see a quarter of his hits on the season, including his only Homerus which just so happened to be four rows in front of where I was sitting. Both those games were fun but even in those games he looked like such a shell of himself and the only time a ball with any authority was when he had his Home run and it was a Yankee stadium dinger. Jeter didn't officially miss the season but really he did and now going into this off season the Yankees are going to have to look at a plan for Shortstop that isn't Derek Jeter. I said before that I though Jeter would be a 100 game DH if they wanted to play him for a full season and now the idea of Jeter playing 50 games in the field seems like wishful thinking. This is on top of the idea that Jeter might very well not play for the Yankees ever again, imagine if Jeter comes into the off season and wants a new contract? The Yankees and Yankees fans love Derek Jeter but if he thinks that the Steinbrenners will open their checkbooks and give him a big new deal then he is nuts.Remember Jeter was overpaid in his last contract and Jeter was upset that he did not get more money. In terms of career accomplishments Jeters resume is littered with them and he currently ranks 10th all time in total hits with 3,316, that's a huge accomplishment and nothing else needs to be said about it. If  Jeter played next year at anything resembling a major league hitter he would probably move above Cap Anson at 6th overall with 3,445 career hits and I guess it really comes down to if he views moving higher and higher on the all time hit list as reason enough to come back next year.
This season really isn't something you can truly blame Jeter for, but his drive to get back on the field as soon as possible likely hurt him more than anything else. He wanted to be ready for opening day, but at 39 he just wasn't physically capable of it and pushing to get back as soon as possible only served to aggravate his injury further which is why he never looked like he was really ready to be back at any point in his brief 17 game season. That push though is who Jeter is and without it you don't really know if he ever could have accomplished what he did in his career. I said it in May and I will say it again you can shut the book on Jeter as an everyday Shortstop and now what it really comes down to is does Jeter want to continue on in his Major League career if he is no longer a star caliber player? Can he accept being a mostly Full time DH? Can he accept having a bench role and getting paid a lot less money to do so? We have seen some players whose desire to play, no matter what, is so strong that former super stars will play in the minors or go oversees to keep playing, but is that what Jeter wants to do? Its not a criticism of his either way or any kind of judgment on him as a player or person but that is what the outlook for the rest of his career is. Either way Derek Jeter is one of the all time greatest Yankees and if his career is over tomorrow then it was an amazing experience for all of us as fans and if not then we all get more Derek Jeter.