Thursday, January 26, 2012

Boone Logan is last Yankee to settle on arbitration

Boone Logan and the Yankees avoided arbitration by signing Logan to a $1.875 million deal for 2012. By doing this the Yankees settled with their last arbitration eligible player and paid a grand total of $16.775 to their six arbitration eligible players. The list is as follows:

Boone Logan- $1.875
Logan was the Yankees only lefty out of the pen last season and while a solid arm he was inconsistent at times and could be the only lefty in the pen again this year. He did have some very good outing against the Sox in particular last season.

David Robertson- $1.6 million
This was Robertson's first arbitration year and its a nice pay increase from the league minimum salary that he was making the last 3 years. If he does what he did last year again he will get a good raise next year.

Joba Chamberlain- $1.675 million
While it may seem odd that Joba got payed more than Robertson considering that Joba only pitched 28 innings last year because of his injury. But arbitration is also largely based on service time and it was his second year of arbitration. He got a lot less than he might have.

Phil Hughes- $3.2 million
perfect example of how its based on service time. After his 2010 Phil Hughes got $2.7 million and with less than half the innings he pitched the year before he got a raise. Hughes however only has one year of arbitration left and so 2012 will need to be good for him.

Russel Martin- $7.5 million
After being non tendered by the Dodgers last season Martin had a good year with the Yankees and received almost double the $4 million he was paid last year. The Yankees had been talking about a two year deal with Martin before deciding on roughly the midpoint of Martins proposed $8.2 million and the Yankees $7 million. Hopefully the Yankees get another solid season from Martin in 2012.

Brett Gardner- $2.8
Like Robertson Gardner had his first year of arbitration and got a nice pay raise after making the league minimum the last three years. Gardner will look at find some offensive consistency this year in hope of signing a multi-year deal with the Yankees, while continuing to provide excellent defense.

All of these guys will be arbitration eligible again next year, except for Russel Martin who will be a free agent. Francisco Cervelli will also be arbitration eligible next season so he will have to try and stay healthy this year.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

A.J Burnett for Mark Reynolds: In idea that will never happen but I will write about anyway

Without AJ Burnett the Yankees never would have won the world series in 2009 but he has been beyond bad the last two years and he still has two years left on his contract. The Yankees have better options in their rotation than him and they have been hoping to dump him on somebody else all off season, especially now that the Yankees have a logjam for the 5th starter. The idea is that the Yankees will try and trade Hughes or Burnett for a DH type who can platoon with Andruw Jones. River ave blues had a list of possible trade candidates and one that I thought might warrant some consideration is Mark Reynolds.
Now to be clear this deal is very unlikely to happen but the Orioles are faced with the issue of having two first baseman and one of them they are paying $7.5 million and the other isn't arbitration eligible for another year. The Orioles have no shot of contending and they wanted to have Reynolds play 3rd but his defense was so bad that he had to be moved to 1st. Reynolds was traded to Baltimore last offseason and has led the league in strike outs the last four seasons. He can however mash the ball and has hit 158 home runs in his five seasons including 37 last year. He is a right handed bat but he hits right handers a bit better than left handers. Reynolds would be good to have for the DH spot especially since he is a free agent after this year. The problem though is that the only way the Yankees would add Reynolds is if they traded AJ Burnett and unfortunately its very doubtful that he will get traded this season especially not to the Orioles who have enough mediocre pitching. Its also the fact that the Orioles don't like trading in the division and it doesn't make any sense for them to trade Reynolds and take on all of Burnett's salary especially since they won't be contending this season. Its a nice idea but it wont happen.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The Prince Saga ends

I know a lot of Yankees fans hoped that the Yankees would sign Fielder, but it was never gonna happen. However I really did not expect that Fielder would sign with the Tigers which is what he did today when he signed for a 9 year $214 million deal. I really thought he would end up going to Washington, but apparently they were never offering him the money or years he wanted. This may have something to do with Victor Martinez's injury, but I have a hard time beleiving that they gave Fielder $214 million because Martinez would be out a year. It seems like Miguel Cabrera will move to 3rd which will be interesting but having both those guys in the lineup will be great for Detroit and they likely just pulled ahead of everyone in that division for the next few years. Its still possible that the Tigers will sign a DH but I find it more likely they will sign a defensive outfielder and have Delmon Young DH quite a bit. This also likely takes the Tigers out of the hunt for Yoennis Cespedes as I doubt they will add anymore payroll.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Yankees talking to Matsui about a return

According to Jon Heyman the Yankees have been in contact with Hideki Matsui. The Yankees reportedly only want to spend about $1-2 Million on a DH after trading Jesus Montero to Seattle.
Matsui posted a .251/.321/.375 line with 12 homers in 583 plate appearances last year in Oakland. He recovered from a slow start to produce better results in the second half (.753 OPS after July 1st), but the average DH posted a .265/.340/.429 line in 2011, so Matsui, and his lack of fielding ability, hasn’t drawn much interest. A return to Oakland doesn’t seem likely and no other teams have been publicly linked to the Wasserman Media Group client.
After his poor year in Oakland  Matsui will probably be looking for one last year before retiring as he will be 38 in June. The Yankees limited budget would seem like enough to bring back Matsui for one last year in Pinstripes before riding off into the sunset. The worst part is that even if Matsui put up the same numbers as he did last year it would still be better than the performance from Yankees DH since Matsui in 2009.
Personally I like this deal for two reasons. One is that Matsui has a proven bat in Yankee stadium and his cheap contract will provide minimal risk. After Matsui the Yankees would have to look at some minor league invites if they plan on staying on budget. The other factor is that I absolutely loved Hideki Matsui and it would be absolutely amazing if the Yankees could bring him back. Ive loved Matsui since he came over in 2003 and he hit a grand slam on opening day.
I really hope it happens, because if it doesn't work then the Yankees can fall back on Jorge Vazquez and I think we would all love to see Godzilla return to the Yankees.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

The Yankees DH solutions

Are one of these men the Yankees DH?
I wrote earlier about Johnny Damon as a possibility at DH for the Yankees now that Montero has been traded and Jon Heyman stated that the two have been talking. Heyman also threw out the name of Posada, but said that the chances were probably was very remote. The Yankees have also said that they are about as high with their payroll as they will go so all of those hoping can forget about them signing Prince Fielder. In my view the Yankees have a few options that they will consider for the DH spot and the biggest factor will be in cost as I doubt that the Yankees will give any more than $5 million to a DH and it could be significantly lower than that.
The Yankees first choice is undoubtedly Carlos Pena who they claimed off waivers last August, but the Cubs pulled him back. Pena strikes out a lot and doesn't  hit for average, but he hits for a lot of power and gets on base at a very good rate. Pena is a good choice as he is a good fielder, but that's part of the problem in that he will want a multi year deal for a good salary and its a good bet that he will get a better offer. If the market for him falls apart then there is a chance but he is the top 1st baseman after Fielder.
After Pena the Yankees will look at Johnny Damon who the Yankees obviously know well. The problem with Johnny is that he is both declining and a complete idiot. Don't get me wrong I like Johnny Damon, but he is a total idiot. This is a guy who has been convinced the last three years that he was going to sign a large deal and has seemed shocked and offended when he did not sign a large contract. I do not think this will effect his play at all but he may not realize that he would need to drop his price to be signed by the Yankees and will instead insist on a salary that they will not pay him. I expect that Damon will sign with the Orioles who will pay him more than he is worth, just as they did with Vlad Guerrero. The chance of the Yankees bringing in Damon are better than them signing Carlos Pena, but I still do not view it as very likely.
Next there is the option of Vlad Guerrero who is likely on the same level as Johnny Damon as a declining player who will ask for money than he is worth. Guerrero held out for $8 million from the Orioles and generated a grand total of .1 WAR, but while Guerrero is certainly declining,  his talent is nothing to ignore.Guerrero could be a decent option, but he will ask for more money than he deserves and while somebody may give it to him it wont be the Yankees.
An option that is undervalued is bringing back Hideki Matsui. Matsui declined last season after a decent year for the Angels in 2010. His decline is real, but what makes him different than Pena, Guerrero or Damon is that Matsui could likely be had for a small deal perhaps as he already was only being paid $4.5 million by the A's and so would probably take something in the $2-$3 million range perhaps even lower. If Matsui stinks then they can DFA him and bring up someone like Jorge Vazquez and they have lost nothing. If he does well then he has one last year as a Yankee before retiring. This leads to another idea which is simply to make Jorge Vazquez, who has raked in ever level, the primary DH. Last year Vazquez hit .262 with 32 Home Runs, but he also struck out 166 times which is why people tend to believe that he is mostly a quadruple-A player. He could be a good fallback option but he is probably not a good guy to start the year as the DH. Going along with the cheap options the Yankees could also bring in several veterans to compete for the DH spot just like they did for the bench spot last year. This could included Jorge Vazquez and Hideki Matsui as well as some names like Marcus Thames, Russell Branyan, Carlos Guillen or even Manny Ramirez. They could also look at trading some of their rotation depth for a DH, with a suggestion of A.J Burnett for Carlos Lee being one that I have seen written about.
The Yankees could also go without a primary DH and instead use a rotation of players at DH, but most teams like to have somebody who will be the primary DH and I expect that the Yankees will have one to start the year.

Could Johnny Damon be a Yankee again?

Could he take #18 back from Jones?
In case you hadn't heard the Yankees and Mariners swapped Jesus Montero and Michael Pineada and while the biggest impact of this is improving the rotation, the Yankees gave up a young impact back who was going to be their primary DH next season. Now the Yankees have a need at the DH spot and it will be curious to see how they fill this hole. Johnny Damon was not resigned by the Tampa Bay rays after a decent season as the DH, after they initially signed him for left field and Manny to DH, but the Rays signed Luke Scott instead of resigning Damon. Now Damon could be a  fit for Yankee and we know they tried to bring him back in 2010 but Damon wanted a big  multi year deal and he eventually ended up signing in Detroit for $8 million. The problem of course is that Damon is declining, as would be expected from a 38 year old and the Yankees don't want another poor year from the DH spot after two bad years in a row. However most DH's are in decline and the first thing that I thought of after Montero was traded was that Damon would be coming back. We will have to wait and see what happens, but Damon is a strong possibility.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Cashman saved it all for Friday the 13th: trades Montero for Pineada and Signs Kuroda.

Rember when you woke up on Friday the 13th thinking that the Yankees were essentially done this off season and wouldn't make any major moves after passing on Gio, CJ Wilson and not really expressing any interest in Edwin Jackson. Sure the Yankees might sign Kuroda or Oswalt, but no major changes.Yup Brian Cashman lulled us all into a state of belief that he would do essentially nothing this off season and then he changes everything.  Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi were sent to Seattle for Michael Pineada and prospect Jose Campos. Then an hour later the Yankees signed Hiroki Kuroda for $10 million. All of the sudden the Yankees went from a rotation of CC,Nova, Garcia, Hughes,Burnett with Noesi as the first call up, to having no space in the rotation for Hughes or Burnett. Now the talk is going to turn to the Yankees looking to trade Burnett or Hughes and them looking for a DH. Montero was a great prospect, but the Yankees obviously didn't view him as a catcher long term and with the Yankees getting older there really wasn't any ideal long term spot for him. The trade makes sense but the fan base definitely feels conflicted about this trade. The fact is that there really isn't any winner or loser of this trade and its hard to gauge because the players swapped were all making the minimum salary, except for Campos who is still in the low minors.
I really liked Montero and I was looking forward to seeing him play a full year, but this is a good old fashioned baseball trade were two teams adressed their long term needs. The Yankees have pitching depth, but they needed a high end starter and the Mariners needed a power bat and they made the deal. Then not to be outdone the Yankees went and signed Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year $10 million deal to really set up their rotation. You can see my earlier post about Kuroda here and I did predict that Kuroda would sign with the Yankees in my post about the remaining free agents that I put up yesterday. The last thing that I will point out is that before this trade the Yankees had a top three offense with a questionable rotation and now they may be questionable as a top three but have a much improved rotation and are going to be the clear favorites for the AL East.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Top Twenty Remaing MLB Free Agents

Well its officially January 12th and only a month until pitchers and catchers report, with two members of the top five free agent still available in number two Prince Fielder and number six Edwin Jackson. Neither of those guys were expected to last past 2011 on the market but the pool of potential teams has dried up. However there still are still a number of teams looking at free agents and still a lot of free agents available, with MLB trade rumors having a complete list. Here is my top twenty of the remaining free agents:

  1. Prince Fielder- Washington Nationals: I did mention in my top 50 free agent post that if he did not go to the Cubs then he really didn't have a lot of potential suitors. The Mariners and Nationals were thought to be other suitors, but I think that the Mariners are a pipe dream that fans and the media came up with. Baltimore and Toronto have been mentioned as suitors but neither seems very interested in committing that type of money to Fielder and still don't. In fact the only suitor that has expressed any interest in a long term deal has been the Washington Nationals and that deal has some potential pitfalls as the Nationals already have Adam LaRoche at first and would like to move Michael Morse there soon. If the Nationals sign Fielder they would be forced to play Jayson Werth or Bryce Harper in Center  Field long term and that's not ideal. They also do not want to commit $20 million-plus salaries to three players before even making the playoffs. The idea has been brought up of Fielder taking a one year deal to try and sign a deal next year with the Dodgers who will have new ownership. This could make sense and the Brewers reportedly offered the deal to Fielder but Boras rejected it. The idea now is that Boras is going to wait until Yu Darvish signs to see if the Rangers can be interested in Fielder. However I doubt that the Rangers will commit to a big deal with Fielder when Kinsler, Napoli and Hamilton will need extensions. If Fielder decides to take a one year deal to look again at the market next year then it opens up, but the Nationals may be the only team that will offer Fielder anywhere near the money and years he wants and I think they are going to wait for his price to come down.
  2. Edwin Jackson- Baltimore Orioles: Jackson wants a multi-year deal but his potential suitors, including the Yankees, do not seem interested in doing so. Boras reportedly even went to the Steinbreners to try and get them to sign Jackson and they wouldn't do more than a one year deal. Jackson is too young and talented to settle for a one year deal and so Jackson will have to look to non-contenders. The Orioles have signed Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada out of the Japanese league but their unknowns and the rest of their starting staff has been mediocre to bad. Jackson has a lot of potential and has good stuff, but has never put it all together; however he eats innings and that's what the Orioles really want from their starters right now. Returning to St. Louis could always be in the cards but I haven't heard anything connecting them to Jackson. With a one year deal the field will open up just like it would for Fielder.
  3. Yoenis Cespedes- Miami Marlins: He's not a free agent yet and I almost let him off the list as a result, but he reportedly is going to be a free agent soon and there is no better fit for both sides than Miami. All of our information about Cespedes has come from his Youtube videos and a few scouting trips, but the Marlins are interested in the 26 year old. Other teams need a center fielder but Miami is trying to restart its relationship with fans and is really trying to appeal to the Hispanic community in Souhern Florida. Their entire infield is Hispanic but the Cuban Cespedes could really appeal to the large Cuban community in Florida if he reaches his star potential. The Marlins are going to go hard after him and I expect that they will blow everybody else away.
  4. Hiroki Kuroda- New York Yankees: Kuroda seems to me to be between two teams, the Yankees and the Red Sox. Kuroda is not going to return to Japan and while the Red Sox need a starter more than the Yankees do the Yankees will likely put out more money than the Red Sox will. It could really end up going either way but Kuroda is a great fit for either team, but the Red Sox just need pitchers who will eat innings so that may put Kuroda out of their price range.
  5. Carlos Pena- Cleveland Indians: There are three big suitors for Pena in my mind and those are Clevaland, Texas and Tampa Bay. The problem is that only Cleveland has expressed serious interest in Pena and while the other two teams are fits, Cleveland seems to be the most aggressive team on the market for Pena. The addition of Pena would be great for Cleveland as they could try and take advantage of a potentially weak AL Central. I expect that he will sign a two year deal no matter who he signs it with
  6. Joe Saunders: Saunders was non tendered by Arizona after a good 2011 and he wants to sign a three year deal. Unfortunately I do not think three years is extremely likely and I even question who will give him two years. The Red Sox have reportedly been pursing Saunders and he could be a good fit as he has eaten around 200 innings each of the last four years. However hes a soft tosser and will give up a lot of home runs and that seems to be the Red Sox's primary concern with him. I really like how he fits for the Tigers as a back end starter, but I don't know if they will be interested in paying him.
  7. Casey Kotchman: I see Kotchman having the same suitors as Carlos Pena and I expect that he will sign with Tampa Bay or Texas. The issue is that as good as Kotchman was this year he had never has a year that good and he was terrible in Seattle. Being a Tampa Bay native I know that the Rays would like to bring him back but they got him for a bargain $750,000 last year and he will want to get paid. Kotchman could be an interesting fit for Texas as he is considered to be a good defensive 1st baseman and if he failed they could always turn back to Mitch Moreland.
  8. Cody Ross: Ross is borderline starter and good fourth outfielder. As a result he has a lot of potential suitors with the Indians and Red Sox being the best fit if he still wants a two year deal. Both teams are lefty heavy and need a strong backup for Ryan Kalish and Grady Sizemore respectively. The Reds, Nationals, Mariners and A's could also pursue Ross and could play Center Field for the Nationals or A's.
  9. Johnny Damon: I thought the Luke Scott deal was good for Tampa until I found out that they would be paying him $5 million, which is about $2-3 million more than I thought he would get. Damon will probably get $5-$7 million to DH but I see only two teams that could use a full time DH and those are the Mariners and Orioles. Damon can still sort of play the field but a team will want him to DH most days. I expect he will sign another incentive laden deal.
  10. Roy Oswalt: Oswalt is an elite pitcher but he has had back issues for awhile and that's not going to go away. He is a big risk reward signing but someone will likely take a chance on him as a starter or he could sign with a team as a long reliever.
  11. Francisco Cordero: Cordero was rumored to be close to a deal with the Reds before they signed Ryan Madson. Cordero could end up being a bargain for any number of teams and any number of teams could get him for cheap.
  12. Bartolo Colon: Colon has scarred off a lot of teams because of how new his stem cell treatment is. I expect that he will end up signing for between $1.5-$2.5 million with somebody as a long reliever and teams looking for a bargain starter like Oakland or the Mariners could pick him up.
  13. Derrek Lee: After Fielder there is Pena and Kotchman and after them is Derek Lee. Lee played well for the Pirates, after getting cut by the Orioles and is a cheap option. There are really three teams that I see potentially signing him and those are Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. All three would be good fits for Lee and Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have both expressed interest.
  14. Kerry Wood: Wood wants to return to the Cubs, but this year he wants to get paid whats hes worth and if he doesn't then the Phillie's have been linked to him.
  15. Rick Ankiel: Ankiel can play a great Center Field but he hasn't hit very well the last three years. Any number of teams could get him as a backup and a return to Washington or Kansas City or Washington is possible. The Reds have also expressed interest.
  16. Jeff Francis: Francis didnt pitch exceptionally well last year but he did eat a lot of innings and teams still looking for a fifth starter could try Francis. The team I think he fits the best with is probably the Tigers, but they havent been linked to him. I expect that he will sign a deal about the same value as Bartolo Colon.
  17. Ryan Ludwick: Ludwick has been bad the last two years and he will be looking for a backup job. The Reds have been linked to Ludwick and it would probably be a good fit as would the Indians and the Red Sox.
  18. Kosuke Fukudome: Fuckudome played better than Ludwick last year but he doesnt seem to be getting a lot of interest. He could go back to Japan but I expect he will sign for cheap with a west coast team. Fukudome isn't bad he just was getting paid a lot more than he was worth in Chicago.
  19. Mike Gonzalez: The best lefty on the market. I expect that he will resign with Texas but he could end up going anywhere. 
  20. Juan Pierre: Still can play the field and is a speed threat but past that he is little more than a name with the skill level of Chris Dickerson. He will sign as a backup outfielder with somebody.
After this the free agent pool gets into a lot of borderline replacement level bench players, old DH types and mediocre or injured pitchers with some upside. There still are names out there like Hideki Matsui, Rich Harden, Joel Pineiro and Ivan Rodriguez. These guys will probably all get invites from one team or another as somebody tries to find a diamond in the ruff, Javier Vazquez could also decide to not retire and be a good boost for any number of teams. Bullpen arms provide a good opportunity for steals and any number of guys could sign for cheap deals and prove valuable in the bullpen.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Jorge Posada will retire

Posada had been linked to the Orioles, Phillies and Rays but obviously the deals never worked out for him. Posada hit .273/.374/.474 for his career with 275 home runs and may have some real Hall of fame credentials. Posada played his entire 17 year career as a Yankee and was probably the most unappreciated part of the core four. Posada will officially announce his retirement in the next two weeks.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Nakajima and Eric Chavez

Well the Yankees have announced that they failed to make a deal with Hiroyuki Nakajima and so he will go back to Japan for a year before being free to sign with a team next season as a free agent. The Yankees never expected to win the bidding on Nakajima and while they had a need on the bench they could not agree on the money. The Problem was likely that Nakajima wanted more money than he was making in Japan, but the Yankees wanted to pay him like he was a utility infielder. Some had suggested a sign and trade but obviously that did not work out. Nakajima could be released by his club to pursue a deal with another team but more likely he will just wait till next year. I was looking forward to Nakajima just because he would be something different, but it did not work out. With Nakajima going back to Japan the Yankees will likely look to resign Eric Chavez who they hope will be able to do what he did last year for them again this year, now that he is not retiring. The Yankees could also bring in a few guys to compete for the job in spring training much like they did last year. Chavez probably would have already signed a deal if the Yankees had not won the rights to Nakajima and I expect that the Yankees will sign him quickly. If Chavez does come back then this team will look almost exactly like it did at the start of last year with the only missing pieces being Joba and Bartolo.