Sunday, June 30, 2013

Trade Target: Michael Young

Well I was not sure how to approach the issue of trade candidates because basically everybody that is available is one for the Yankees. They need an upgrade at 1st, SS, 3rd, C, and an OF spot so trying to talk about all the players would be very tough. So instead of writing about all the options I am simply going to write about my perceived best option at every position. So first off we have Michael Young
Future Yankee?

Michael Young is 36 and is in first year of playing with a team that isn't the Texas rangers. If you recall he mostly played 1st and DH since 2011 but this season the Phillie's installed him as their everyday 3rd baseman. Defensively he has been pretty bad especially considering he wasn't very good in the field back in 2010 when he last played 3rd full time. Offensively though Young has been much better this year than last, he already has five Home runs on the year after hitting eight all last season an his slash line is .287/.345/.408 with an wRC+ 108 which would far and away beat the Yankee third base accumulation of wRC+ 58. That is not a typo Yankees third baseman have combined for a slash line of .220/.283/.299 and a wRC+ of 58, Young would be a Major upgrade over that. Some of you might say that we should just wait for ARod and while the Yankees need him back they need to add more than just ARod and Granderson and Young really should be one of those bats. Young could play 3rd until ARod is ready and then he can shift to 1st base and either platoon with Overbay or the Yankees can simply cut Overbay as Young is hitting RHP at .300/.338/.399 which is currently better than Overbay's .259/.305/.482.
This is easier aid than done though, the Phillies are currently hovering around .500 and may not want to move Young and even if they do, Young has a full No-trade clause and while he did waive it to go to the Phillies we don't know if he would to go to the Yankees or any other team for that matter. I also do not know what kind of package the Phillies would want for Young but due to the dearth of quality options at 3rd they could probably get a lot more than you would expect. Remember Zach Wheeler was traded for half a season of Carlos Beltran two years ago.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

A True Yankee Podcast June 2013



Chris and Nick discuss the Biogenesis case, the Yankees record since the last podcast and where they need to add offense. We also talk about the Yankees draft picks in the recent MLB draft and some returning players.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Trout or Harper? How about Machado



Unless you have been living under a rock for the last year and a half, you have heard of Mike Trout, the outfielder for the Angels, and Bryce Harper the outfielder for the Nationals.  Both are great young players, and everyone has an opinion of who is better, but have you heard of Manny Machado?  Manny is the  20 year old who plays third baseman for the Baltimore Orioles, he is batting .317 and sits as a 3.5 Wins Above Replacement Player in his second year and first full season in the majors. On the other hand, Mike Trout is hitting .305 with a 1.8 WAR, and Bryce Harper is hitting .287 with a 1.9 WAR, both in their second years as well.  To be fair, Machado has 5 Homeruns while Trout has 10 and Harper has 12, but you would think you'd hear of a guy playing on the same level as Trout and Harper, in the same age group, and with the same number of years in the MLB, but most likely you haven't. 
            To give you a better idea of how each player is doing this year, Trout is hitting .305, with 10 HRs, an OBP of .375, with 40 RBIs.  Harper is hitting .287, with 12 HRs, an OBP of .386, with 23 RBIs.  Machado is hitting .317, with 5 HRs, an OBP of .353, with 33 RBIs.  Part of the reason you have not heard of Machado is because he was not in the debate last year, he had a great season, but he was not on the level of Trout or Harper.  He hit .262 with 7 HRs, and OBP of .294, with 26 RBIs.  Trout blows both Harper and Machado away with 14 stolen bases this season, while Harper has 2 and Machado has 5, albeit Harper has done this in 100 fewer at bats due to his decision to run into a wall full steam.
            The reason why you have not heard of Manny Machado?  Well let's look at Machado before he got called up.  In High School, Machado hit .639, 12 home runs, and 68 RBIs in 29 games!  WOW! That's a reason why you should have heard of him.  This led to Machado being selected 3rd overall in the MLB draft in 2012, unfortunately it was the same draft where Bryce Harper went first overall.  His average in 2012 while playing in Double A was .266 which is partly why you have not heard of him, Trout and Harper put up monster numbers in the minors and so all the focus was on them.  The conclusion I have come to is that you would have heard of Manny Machado, if he had not been eclipsed in his Rookie year by Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
            There are two things one can use as an argument to why Machado is better than either Trout of Harper.  First, he has a better average than either one, second, and in my opinion, the most important, he can play shortstop.  Not to downplay outfielders, but right now the league is missing out on shortstops, the reason he is not playing the position is because the Orioles already have a great shortstop in J.J Hardy.  I'm not here to argue what position Machado should play, but the fact that he can play shortstop well is a huge plus.
            So we looked at all three player's offense, and they are pretty close.  Now let's look at their defense.  Everyone knows how great Trout's fielding is, everyone has seen videos of Trout "stealing" homeruns from people with his great defense.  He has a fielding percentage of .987 with a range of 2.48 per nine innings, but has a defensive WAR of -1.2, and Harper has a fielding percentage of .964 with a range of 1.98 per nine innings with a defensive WAR of 0.1.  Comparing these statistics, it is not clear which outfielder is better, although only one has a habit of running into walls.  For comparison, Adam Jones who won a Gold Glove for center field in 2012 had a fielding percentage of .982 with a range of 2.75 with a defensive WAR of -1.3.  Though Harper has a disadvantage, he is not a natural outfielder, he came up as a catcher and the Nationals switched him to Outfield.  Machado has a similar disadvantage, he started off as a shortstop and in 2012, they switched him to third base, only playing the position twice before being called up to the majors.  Though switching from shortstop to third base is easier than switching from catcher to center field.
            It is hard to compare Machado to Trout and Harper because he plays third base, which is why I have chosen fielding percentage, range, and defensive Wins Above Replacement as the best stats to compare them.  Machado has a fielding percentage of .984 with a range of 3.03 per nine innings and a defensive WAR of 1.8.  He is currently ranked 3rd for fielding percentage at third base, and his range is the best in the American League.  To compare that, Adrian Beltre who won a Gold Glove in 2012 for third base, had a fielding percentage of .974 and a range of 2.43 and a defensive WAR of 1.4.  In conclusion, both Harper and Trout are great defensive players, but Machado is on his way to winning a Gold Glove for his performance at third base.
            It is difficult to use stats to compare player's defense, but using these three stats, fielding percentage, dWAR, and range, Manny Machado is in the top 3 to play his position while Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are not even in the top ten for their position. It is still too early to tell which of the three are having a better year, but it is clear that you while everyone is talking about Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, that you should keep an eye out for Manny Machado.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Yankees draft Conneticut Native SS John Murphy



(AP Photo/ Richard Shiro)
With their 6th round pick 194th overall the New York Yankees drafted Short stop John Murphy a senior from Sacred Heart University and a native Nutmeger being born in Seymour, Connecticut. Murphy grew up a Yankees fan and is a big Derek Jeter fan. Murphy is a left handed batter who hit .374/.449/.576 with Sacred Heart this year and stole 29 bases. He is considered a skilled fielder and can play around the field, but his value comes at short stop, where he started all four seasons of his collegiate career. Murphy led the Pioneers in all offensive categories and could potentially develop into a top of the lineup bat, but he will need to learn patience as he does not walk very often. Being that he was a four year college starter, Murphy is likely headed for Staten Island, as fourth round pick Short stop Tyler Wade will likely head to Rookie ball. I am very excited to see how he does, not only because of his Connecticutness but because if he hits then he could easily be the Yankees top Short stop prospect, which given the field isn’t as much of an accomplishment as it sounds.

You can follow Murphy on twitter at @John_Murphy4

2013 Draft review


Its kind of funny that anybody pays attention to the MLB draft, I mean this isnt the NBA or NFL draft where you will see these guys next year and I mean come on there are 40 round and that is down from just a few years ago when there were 50, 1216 kids got drafted and not only will the vast majority of them not make it to the majors or likely even stick in minor league ball more than a few years, a lot of these guys wont even sign. But peole have become inreasingly intrested in the draft and that is likely to continue as some of these top players need to spend less and less time in the minors.
The Yankees drafted a total of 42 players over the course of the draft but most of the excitement is reserved for the players taken in the first few rounds. The Yankees had three picks in the first round and they selected Notre Dame 3rd baseman Eric Jagielo with their first pick at 26th overall and then Fresno State Outfielder Aaron Judge and High school left hander Ian Clarkin back to back at 32nd and 33rd overall.


Picking Jagielo is one that people had expected if he was available and sure enough the Yankees picked him with their first pick in the draft. He is a left handed batter who could stick at 3rd base and has the power and patience that the Yankees love, especially his power to right field. He has great command of the strike zone and hit .400/.508/.676 with eight homers with the Irish this spring. If you want more check our Mike Axisa’s profile of him here.

Aaron Judge is a pick that I absolutely love, I wanted the Yankees to take him with their first pick, but he was available just a few picks later at 32nd overall and the Yankees took him the 6-foot-7 Center fielder who according to everything can actually play center field. He is a good athlete and a quick runner so he knows what he is doing in the outfield, but he will shift to Right in pro ball because of his strong arm. His bat though is what everyone is raving about, he has awesome power but he does strike out a lot and can steal plenty of bases too. At Fresno state this year he had a batting line of .369/.461/.655 with 12 homers and 12 steals in their 56 game season and was ranked as the 17th best prospect in the draft by Keith Law.

The Yankees 3rd first round pick went to High School LHP Ian Clarkin who made waves after he was selected when a video was shown of him saying that his greatest sports memory was the Yankees losing in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. This was embarrassing for Ian and the Yankees, but don’t expect that it will effect whether or not he signs with the Yankees. Let’s just note that first round picks Phil Hughes and Slade Heathcott were big Red Sox fans while Yankees fan Gerritt Cole decided to go to college, nobody will turn down this kind of money because they aren’t their rooting interest. That being said Clarkin does have a commitment to San Diego State and he could hope that his draft stock will rise after three years in college, something that Judge and Jagielo really cannot hope for. His stuff is really polished for a high school pitcher, good 90-94 fastball, a developing changeup and apparently a very sick power curveball that is his top out pitch. If he does sign I expect that he will go to Rookie Ball in Gulf coast league, while Jagielo and Judge can be expected to start in Staten Island as soon as they sign considering the short season leagues start next week.

The Yankees second round pick 2nd baseman Gosuke Katoh was a bit of a reach and many expect that he was a bit of a cost saving move as he was expected to go in the third round. If the money they save helps them sign all three of their first round picks then so be it. Is no scrub though he is a defensive whiz and models himself after Ichiro at the plate, but whose arm limits him from playing short or third base. He does have a commitment to UCLA but with a second round pick its expected he will sign. This kid is valuable enough defensively that I would bet he will make the majors on that alone, but his value increases exponentially if he can stick at short stop but that needs to be seen.

With their third round pick the Yankees selected Outfielder Michael O’Neil who just so happens to be the nephew of Paul O’Neil. This is the second time the Yankees drafted O’Neil as they picked him in the 42nd round of the 2010 draft but he chose to go to the University of Michigan. This one isn’t a favor pick either O’Neil is a legitimate prospect and quite frankly a bit of a steal that he was available at 103rd overall as he was rated as the 79th best prospect in the draft. Honestly you could probably flip O’Neil and Katoh so everything evens out in terms of steal and reach and in fact the Yankees had called him about taking below slot money in the second round but he declined and so they took Katoh. O’Neil is a legit centerfielder with good defense and a strong arm, he is a kid who will hit for solid power, has good tools and is an aggressive base runner, but he strikes out a lot. If he develops he could be a 15 homers 15 steals a year guy.

With their Sixth Round pick the Yankees selected Sacred Heart Short stop John Murphy who is a Nutmeger through and through as he is from Seymour, Connecticut. As a result I have a special write up about him here.

In the 37th round the Yankees selected High school RHP Joshua Pettitte the son of Yankee pitcher Andy Pettitte. Joshua was actually with the Yankees at the time as his dad was pitching 7.1 brilant innings against the Mariners. Don’t get your hopes up though he is going to Baylor and said so before the draft and when he was taken. It makes sense for him he is not much of a prospect right now and going to college can really help him in a couple years. Besides if he does nothing in college the Yankees would probably still give him a shot because he’s Andy Pettitte’s kid.

If you are interested here is a list of all the 42 players the Yankees took in the draft, most of the later guys either won’t sign or aren’t anything more than organizational depth, but remember Nik Turley was taken in the 50th round with the second to last pick and now he looks like someone who will definitely be a major league pitcher.

Also here is a list of some of my fellow Nutmegers, apart from John Murphy, who were taken in the draft.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Who's at Short?


Photo Credit: Leon Haslip, Getty Images
As I wrote in an earlier article we may be looking at the end of Derek Jeter and almost definitely looking at the end of Jeter at shortstop. The Yankees came into the year with Eduardo Nunez as the starting shortstop and while he was improved on defense his offensive production left a lot to be desired with a paltry .200/.290/.275 in 95 Plate appearances. A player would need to be an elite defender for those numbers to be acceptable and unfortunately Jayson Nix really has not been much better, Nix has been exactly replacement level while Nunez is almost a full win below replacement level. Recently Brian Cashman said that he doesn't plan on making a larger  acquisition at shortstop and so he is apparently putting all his eggs into the Derek Jeter basket which is very likely a mistake. The real problem is that that Jeter is most likely done as anything more than a part time shortstop and that may be being generous. As I have said before 38 year olds are not supposed to play short stop and I do not think that Jeter can physically play on that ankle more than once in a while, Jeter has already exceeded expectations for his age and expecting the same production is borderline insane.
The other half of the problem is that quality short stops are not in an abundance, especially since the Yankees would need to bring in someone as a long term answer and there just aren't any available unless they want to give a long term deal to Stephen Drew this off season and he still looks bad since his terrible ANKLE INJURY and from which he has never regained his previous form.
The trade market doesn't look much better as the only potentially available quality short stop is the White Sox  Alexi Ramirez and he is 31 so he would not be more than a stopgap. Ramirez has done well in his career hitting .275/.315/.404 and is considered a good defender. Jimmy Rollins presents another possibility but he would be even more of a stopgap as his is 34 and only under contract for one more season, he has had a much better career than Ramirez but at this point they are very similar players as Rollins has posted a slash line this year of .264/.329/.403. But what really prevents me from saying that the Yankees should trade for Rollins or Ramirez is that I expect that they will be traded at the deadline and even worse is that I expect the Yankees could make a good offer to the Phillies or White Sox and end up really helping the team but I do not think that the Yankees or Brian Cashman will do it. So for the foreseeable future it looks like Idontknow will be playing Short stop for the Yankees because the only true Short stop they have is Eduardo Nunez and exactly no prospects in the minors at short unless you consider Cito Culver still a prospect and you really shouldn't.