2011 Prediction

I decided that the day before the Season began was the best time to do a prediction of the Division Winners and wild card team for each league.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are going to suffer from injuries all year long and like last year the healthy parts of the lineup will struggle to try and provide all the offense for the team just as they did last year. However in the end the teams pitching staff will allow them to win the NL East despite a valiant attempt by the Atlanta Braves. Even if Chase Utley misses the whole year the Phillies rotationis good enough that they will still be able to win the NL East. The only move i can see the Phillie making is  if Brad lidge continues to struggle or remain healthy then you could see the Phillies try and trade for someone who can fill in, much like the Twins did with Matt Capps last year.

NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
Most people seem to be thinking the Reds right now but Prince Fielder is in a contract year and the Brewers have their first legitimate rotation since Sabathia was one all by himself in 2008. I know that Greinke and Hart will start the season on the DL but if the Brewers can wait for these guys to get healthy then they could take advantage of a weakened NL Centrall and take the division away from the Reds. Plus this is an all or nothing year for the Brewers as Fielder will walk after this year and they have emptied their farm system to try and win now.

NL West: San Francisco Giants
This one is actually pretty hard as the Rockies will give the Giants a run for their money, but the Giants Rotation is arguably the the best in baseball . That being said their offense needs to step up and the Giants are probably going to have to look for a better solution at Shortstop than Miguel Tejada. If the Giants offense struggles then the Pitching staff can carry them, but only for so long and Buster Posey can't do it all.

NL Wild-card: Atlanta Braves
If it were not for the Phillies reacquisition of Cliff Lee then I think the Braves would be able to dethrone the Phillies and claim the NL East for themselves. The Braves took their already strong offense and added Dan Uggla for a utility infielder and a reliever because Jeff Loria (owner of the Marlins) is trying to see if he can completely destroy any chance of their being a fan base for the Marlins. The Braves rotation led by Derek Lowe is formidable, but not to the same level as the the Phillies and because of that they will fall short of the Division title, but they will capture the wild-card.

AL East: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were already a formidable team that contends every year, but then they went out and traded for Adrian Gonzalez who if healthy will be an absolute beast in Fenway park. The Red Sox, being the scrappy small market team that they are, were able to scrounge up some change and pay free agent Carl Crawford $142 million over 7 years. Last year the Boston bullpen struggled so the Sox acquired Dan Wheeler and Bobby Jenks to bolster their pen and possibly take over for Pappelbon if he proves to be unreliable. The Red sox have a great rotation, but after Lester every one of them has question marks as Beckett and Dice-K have had recent injury problems, Lacky suffered from being mediocre and over hyped and Buchholz stats suggest he will regress this year.Even if the Rotation has problems the Red Sox have good rotation depth and their offense should be able to overcome any pitching problems and win them games.

AL Central: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will finally be able to beat the twins and capture the Central division title. The White Sox upgraded their offense considerably by adding Adam Dunn  to their lineup who will crush the ball in U.S cellular park. The White Sox also have probably the best rotation in the AL central and I believe that the race will end up being between them and the Twins as the Tigers lack the necessary starting pitching depth to compete and will fade early. The biggest concern for the White Sox is their bullpen as the Sox were unable to bolster their bullpen and they will need to either hope it gets better on its own or they bolster it through trade if they want to be sure to get the division this year.

AL West: Texas Rangers
This is probably my most uncertain pick as i was trying to decide between the Rangers with their offense and almost no starting pitching versus the A's with their starting pitching and almost no offense. I was starting to lean toward the A's who went from no offense to almost no offense this off-season with their acquisition of Hideki Matsui and Josh Willingham and a great group of young pitchers. However I was swayed by Rangers owner Nolan Ryan who stated that the Rangers will upgrade their starting pitching and will not be afraid to make a trade like last years for Cliff Lee. The Ryan ownership group wants to win, while the Athletics want to move, the Mariners stink and the Angels are just trying to confuse people. The Rangers also improved an already potent offense by adding Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli and the Rangers lineup should be able to produce enough runs to keep themselves in games and the acquisition of a top of the rotation starter will enable them win the AL west again in 2011.

Al Wild-card: New York Yankees
The Yankees will look to stay in contention until they are able to acquire another starting pitcher to bolster their rotation  and their offense and bullpen should be able to keep them close to the Sox and ahead of the Rays. The Yankees will have to fight off the Rays, the Jays and the Fighting Showalter to keep themselves in second, but I have a feeling that the Yankees offense is going to keep pace with the Red Sox and their ability to score runs will hold off the non-Sox teams in the division.There is also the fact that besides the Rays I don't see any other team in the American League that could possibly beat the Yankees the wild-card and not win their own division. When the Yankees acquire a starting pitcher they will likely give the Sox a run for the Division but I doubt that they will be able to capture the Division.

Good and Bad News 3/30/11

                Today is the last day before Opening day and the Yankees have announced some good news and some bad news.

Good news:

For one baseball will start tomorrow at 1:05 pm at Yankee stadium and that is great news. Curtis Granderson is not only ok but he will be starting tomorrow, this is great news and I’m sure that he is fully healthy as I doubt the Yankees would start him tomorrow if he was not. Also  the Yankees have been able to add Luis Ayala, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia to the 40-man roster without releasing anyone which leads to the bad news.

Bad news:

Colin Curtis, Reggie Corona and Damaso Marte are all starting the season on the 60 day disabled list and Francisco Cervelli and Pedro Feliciano will start the season on the 15 day disabled list. Cervelli is recovering from his broken foot so that was expected. Feliciano on the other hand went from a sore tricep to being diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain. That’s very unfortunate especially since Feliciano was signed due to his ability to be a workhorse and he has never been on the disabled list before. Hopefully Feliciano recovers soon he has been shut down for at least 10 days.

Other news:

The Yankees made it official and Gustavo Molina will start the year as the backup catcher for the Yankees until Cervelli comes back. Also if you haven’t heard Brett Gardner will bat leadoff tomorrow with Jeter in the 2 hole and I guarantee you that Michael Kay will talk about Jeter in the 2^nd spot for the entire game tomorrow.

Yankees update 3/26/11

The Yankees wasted no time and announced that Ivan "super" Nova and Freddy Garcia will get the 4th and 5th Starter jobs out of spring training and the Yankees will try and use Bartolo Colon as the long man. Girardi has says that Colon will fill the role that Alfredo Aceves did in 2009 and early 2010, where he will spot start, do long relief work and work as a regular reliever as well, personally I still think Alfredo Aceves could have filled the role of Alfredo Aceves very well.
Also the Yankees decided to mess with my prediction for 5th outfielder by not only acquiring two more potential back up outfielders but also by likely going without a 5th outfielder for the season. However Curtis Granderson's Injury has thrown a wrench into their plans and if they start the year without him then they will bring one of the Outfielders with them to opening day. In addition to the potential backup outfielders I discussed in my article the Yankees acquired Justin Maxwell from the Nationals and Chris Dickerson from the Brewers. In addition to that Colin Curtis, Greg Golson and Chris Dickerson have all decided to hurt themselves in varying degrees, Curtis jammed his shoulder, Golson had an oblique injury and today Dickerson pulled a hamstring (possibly just cramping)  in the game after going 3-3. If Dickerson does have a hamstring injury, then the most likely candidate is Justin Maxwell, because the Yankees still seem hesitant about Greg Golson and they seem to not want to rush him back from his oblique injury.
Also on the topic of injuries Pedro Feliciano is still battling a sore tricep and for the first time in his career he may end up on the Disabled list. If he does the Yankees do have some good bullpen depth options and another lefty in the pen. In my mind the most likely candidate for the bullpen in place of Felliciano is probably Romulo Sanchez who is already on the 40 man roster and is out of minor league option so the Yankees could get some use out of him before putting him on wavers. If not Romulo Sanchez then the likeliest candidate is Luis Ayala who has been very good this spring; Mark Prior also is still an option, but he will likely need to get more work in AAA before he is MLB ready despite a great spring.

Millwoood, Pitching, Outfield depth and more!

After a winter and spring full of courting the Yankees finally signed Kevin Millwood to a minor league contract. Millwood had been holding out for a major league contract but it became very obvious that nobody other than the Yankees was interested in his services. Millwood's deal is incentive laced and he could earn up to $5 million with base pay and incentives. He will have a base pay of  $1.5 million get half a million for every 5 starts and $1 million for 30 starts.  Unfortunately for Millwood he has been throwing 85 mph potato's and he hasn't thrown any real innings all spring; he also had a 4-16 record last year with a 5.10 ERA in 190.2 innings. Millwood deal is no risk for the Yankees and while some think he's going to battle for a rotation spot he will start the year in AAA, with an opt out date of May 1st. Millwood is a depth signing and he is only a year removed from a good year in 2009 when he went 13-10 with an ERA of 3.97 in 198.2 Innings for Texas. Millwood's stats are strange to see, in his last 4 seasons he had an ERA over 5 except in 2009. Brian Cashman made a smart move, he knows that Millwood is an experienced starting pitcher and this signing is a no risk with possible reward signing. I think that it's very unlikely that Millwood will ever be a true part of the rotation this year, but if Nova, Garcia or Colon falter early then he could be a useful depth pitcher to have until a better alternative can be found and that is what he was signed for.

The other notable transaction that occurred today was the trade of Sergio Mitre "The Experience" to the Milwaukee Brewers for outfielder Chris Dickerson. Chris Dickerson is a depth outfielder who will likely take Granderson's spot if he is not ready for opening day, but he will likely spend most of the year in Scranton. Dickerson is a depth player, but he is a good return for a player was likely going to be released if he wasn't traded. The Brewers got a needed long man and spot starter who had his best ERA (3.33) last season and he will be in a much lighter hitting division that the AL East and could repeat his performance from last year if the Brewers are lucky. Chris Dickerson is now the most experienced depth outfielder for the Yankees to call up, he's a lefty batter and he hits better than our other lefty depth outfielder Colin Curtis.  that it's likely that one of the Yankee's depth outfielders will be traded/released or demoted to AA in the future as the Yankees will want to try and move their outfield prospects up the farm system and get people like Brandon Laird playing time in the Scranton outfield and that will be hard to do with 5 outfielders of AAA starting quality. Jordan Parraz, whom I wrote about in a previous article, is the likeliest candidate to be released and I would expect that he would be released before or when Colin Curtis has recovered from his shoulder injury. Best of luck to you Sergio, I was probably the only Yankee fan who actually liked you.

Good luck as a Brewer (Antonelli/News)

With the trade of Sergio Mitre the 4th, 5th and long relief spots are decided to be Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Ivan "Super" Nova. The only person whose role is more than likely set is Ivan Nova who will likely be the Yankees fourth Starter after having a great spring and a decent September, lets hope he can carry that over into the season. The last two spots will go to Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia, coming into the spring it seemed likely that Garcia would get the 5th starter job and Colon would be released, however Colon decided to pitch very well this spring and seemingly earn himself a rotation spot over Garcia. However Colon hasn't pitched a single inning anywhere since 2009 and nobody seems to believe that he will be able to last the whole year, he is a former CY young award winner who used to pitch 200 innings every year. Colon has been throwing 93 consistently this spring, but he used to throw 96-97 and has not lasted a full season since he won the CY  in 05. Colon could be used in two ways, he could be given a rotation spot and used until he burns himself out or he could be given a long relief role and he might last the whole year, but Colon has made 1 relief appearance in his career and we don't know how he will fare. Colon is pictured below:

Bartolo Colon

Freddy Garcia is another former top of the rotation pitcher who has never been the same since suffering a shoulder injury, but he went 12-6 last year with a 4.64 ERA in 157 innings and does historically have horrible spring trainings. Garcia will be with the team come opening day and the only real question is if he will start out the year as the 5th starter or the long relief man. There is really nothing Colon or Garcia can do to make their way into the rotation as the Yankees will decide their roles based on how they feel about their other assets in the minors. If the Yankees want to make Colon and Garcia last the whole year then the best scenario would be having Garcia as the 5th starter and put Colon in the long relief role where he can stretch out his innings over the year and hopefully make it through the season free of serious injury. But if they simply want to get as much use out of Colon then Garcia will likely start the season as the long man before he moves into the rotation when Colon eventually falters or if anyone else is ineffective or injured. This may be interesting for the Yankees as they can replace the long man in the bullpen much easier than a new starting pitcher, the Yankees can use any number of their AAA pitchers to replace a long man including Hector Noesi, D.J Mitchell or any number of other players.

You can listen to some much better blogger than me talk about  the Yankees pitching and outfield depth on the RAB radio show:

Mark Prior is also still around and he provides the Yankees with some very good bullpen depth if he can prove himself in AAA. The only note with Prior is that if he really starts doing well in AAA then the Yankees will likely deal him before he has the opportunity to opt out. I'd really like to see Prior get called up but ideally he will never pitch an inning in pinstripes as that would mean that the Yankees bullpen stayed healthy and didn't need him. Prior has looked good this spring and if he can keep it up he will be pitching in the majors this year, but hopefully not with the Yankees.

Another depth not is that the Yankees may be going with Gustavo Molina (no relation to the Molina brothers) as their opening day backup catcher until Francisco Cervelli returns from injury. Doesn't look like Montero will be on the opening day roster but I still fully expect that we will see him at some point this year. Molina is not notable for anything and takes light hitting to the extreme, which makes me think that the Yankees could be knocking on Chad Moeller's because despite his full knolledge that light hitting catchers are great defensively Molina has decided to have never thrown out a base runner in the majors before.

2012: Payroll, the Sox and more

Before anyone says that its way to early to talk about 2012 when 2011 hasn't even started yet, I know and I also know that I already did a post on the future of the rotation. I got to thinking about this when I was listening to to RAB radio show and they talked about the Yankees payroll for this year which they think will likely come in at around $190 million which seems very likely and the only real factor left is who will get the 4th, 5th starter and long man job. My bet is that 4th and 5th rotation spots go to Colon and Nova while the long man job goes to Garcia and Mitre is DFA. The Yankees are looking for another quality Starting pitcher, but unfortunately so is half of the MLB and the other half doesn't really have anyone that they are either a) willing to part with or b) is any good. There are a few people that the Yankees may trade for and unless they are named Andy Pettitte they will likely be around in 2012. However pitching is really the only big question mark for the Yankees in 2012, but there does exist two small ones in shortstop and catcher. If everything goes well for Jesus Montero then 2012 will likely feature Montero and Cervelli behind the plate, while the shortstop question is simply if Derek Jeter can show he is still one of the top shortstops in the AL in 2011 and can carry that over to 2012. This could be Jorge Posada's last year in the MLB and/or as a Yankee but if he shows that he can still hit the Yankees may choose to bring him back in 2012 to DH once again and he is only 39 shy on 300 HR, but he would probably get about 7-8 million or less if he did. The Yankees likely will be shedding a lot of payroll as  Damaso Marte, Jorge Posada, Russel Martin and Rafael Soriano could all come off the books, but Robinson Cano is getting a $4 million raise in 2012 and Phil and Joba could get long term extensions this coming off-season. Despite all the money leaving after this year the Yankees will likely stay pretty close to where they are now in terms of payroll even before they look at free agents. Also don't forget that CC has his opt out clause and what he will likely do is work in either a raise or simply an extension and if he does opt out he will really only do it to get a better deal with the Yankees. The Yankees will likely target a starting pitcher this season and if they don't get one or if they get a rental pitcher that they let go after the season then they will have several options but the top two are that the Yankees sign Yu Darvish or one of the B's has a unbelievable year and joins the rotation. So don't worry the Yankees payroll will in all likelihood be back over $200 million in 2012 and possibly before that.
The reason that I started doing this post was because of the talk around the inter web of the possibility that the Sox payroll will eclipse the Yankees in 2011 and beyond. If the Red Sox payroll currently stands at around $165 million and that is before the Adrian Gonzalez extension that will come pretty soon, however his salary wont count toward the luxury tax even though he will be getting around a $16 million raise. Also after this year the Red Sox will be shedding a lot of payroll as J.D drew, Papelbon, Mike Cameron, Ortiz and more will all be entering free agency and unlikely to re-sign. I also doubt that the Red Sox will add anyone significant through free agency as Kalish or Reddick will likely move to RF and other than catcher there is no area that they will sign a long term free agent. If Adrian Gonzalez is 100% by opening day and stays that way he is likely going to run away with the AL MVP award, however shoulder surgery is huge and you never know what will happen. Also it is never good when the only person on your offense not added through free agency to play 150 games was Marco Scutaro and the only other people who played more than 110 games was JD Drew and David Ortiz.

Some guy who only played 75 games in 2010

Also in 2012 Bud Selig has said that he will step down as commissioner of Baseball and hopefully we will be able to get a commissioner who doesn't think that General Doubleday invented Baseball. However he wants to go and teach History at the University of Wisconsin which I find odd, not that he wants to do it at his Alma mater, but that somebody would have Prof. Selig former commissioner of Baseball as a Professor.

The Granderson Trade

Today Jon Heyman from Sports illustrated tweeted that Austin Jackson is looking like a future superstar and is better than Granderson, the obvious implication being that the Yankees made a mistake in trading Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke for Curtis Granderson(who happens to be turning 30 today). Others agree, including many Yankees fans who believe that the Yankees should have kept Jackson and the other pieces of that trade instead of trading them for a center fielder who in 2010 underperformed to say the least. Phil Coke is going to be starting for the Tigers this year and Ian Kennedy was recently named the opening day starter for Arizona and so Arizona and Detroit both seemed to have benefited from the deal. As all of you likely know Austin Jackson finished second last year in the Rookie of the year voting behind Neftali Feliz and his 40 saves and it would have been very cool to have a 2/3 home grown outfield, i think people are missing a big part of this deal.
Before 2010 Austin Jackson had never played a single game in the Majors and while he was hitting .300 in AAA in 2009 that's the minors and we have no idea if those numbers will be anywhere near what a player hits in the majors, so Austin Jackson was a big question mark for the Tigers and while it was very likely that Jackson would hit nobody knew how he would react to the big stage. Another key factor in this is that Austin Jackson is very similar to Brett Gardner in that he is a contact hitter with almost no power, will be good in the outfield and will steal bases.

Austin Jackson generated a 2.9 WAR rating in 2010 and put up the following stats:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2010	23	DET	AL	151	675	618	103	181	34	10	4	41	27	6	47	170	.293	.345	.400

Brett Gardner in his sophomore year had a 4 WAR year in 2010 and put up these stats

If you dont feel like following the link the important ones are a BA of .277 an OBP of .383, 47 Stolen bases and 5 Home runs.

As you can see while Jackson hit better, Gardner had a better on Base percentage and stole more bases and while Jackson did hit for a better average that could be relate to Gardner's drop off after his wrist injury that he never fully recovered from. Also Jackson and Gardner and Granderson generated the EXACT same fielding stats and so the outfield likely would have been just as good defensively as last year. Gardner is also a better base stealer and while they both strike out a lot Gardner generates a lot of walks while Jackson does not and all of Jackson's stats are from leading off while Gardner generated his mostly in the 9th and 2nd spots.
However Jackson was traded for Granderson and Granderson had the worst year of his career last year with a 2.1 WAR and .247 BA, also he hit 24 HR which considering that he hit 30 in detroit last year is disappointing. However Granderson has refined his swing with Kevin Long and the Yankees will need him to hit like he did in the post season because he will be very important to the Yankees in 2011.
Another part of this trade which is often forgotten in Ian Kennedy one of the Big three pitching prospects of the Yankees with Joba and Hughes was traded for Granderson as well and while he went 9-10 he had a 3.80 ERA in 194 innings and had a 2.7 WAR with a whip of 1.2. However Kennedy did give up 26 Home runs and led the league in Wild Pitches. Coke had a negative WAR season with the Yankees in 2009 and while he improved for detroit I don't particularly miss Coke that much. If you look at in based on WAR then the Yankees gave up 2.1+ .6 + 2.9= 5.6 WAR for Curtis Granderson's 2.5 WAR for $4 million dollars more than Detroit and Arizona had to spend.
Hindsight is 20/20 and overall Arizona and Detroit got the better part of the deal than the Yankees, but both Kennedy and Jackson had break out years and quite frankly neither of these players would have likely fit in New York very well and the Yankees like Granderson especially after the tweaks to his swing. Also there have been a lot of players with great rookie seasons who faltered afterward, Jackson is a great player who is going to be a star, but in the MLB superstar outfielders are guys who hit no less than 20+ Home Runs or steal 40+ Bases and Austin Jackson is not going to do either one of those. Ian Kennedy is going to be a great  pitcher who will continue to give up a lot of Home runs, but he is in chase field which is ranked as the 3rd most hitter friendly park in the MLB and he likely would have been better than Javier Vazquez or he could have gotten shelled like he did in 2008. Some people believe that the Yankees lost out on Phil Coke now that he is going to be Starting in detroit, I know he is a lefty but he has only ever started 1 game in AAA and never pitched more than 65 innings in the majors. I don't know if Brian Cashman regrets trading for Granderson but Granderson was an established outfielder, while Jackson was an untested slower Brett Gardner who struck out a lot while Kennedy seemed to have no place with the Yankees in 2010 and he made the decision. Would Yankees fans have been ok with the only home run production in the outfield coming from Nick Swisher? If this trade could be done again I guarantee that the Yankees would not have given as much for Granderson, not because of a lack of production from him but because Jackson would be enough for the deal to happen.

Halladay in Pinstripes

First off i would like to state that this is an off season that is purely in my head and likely was never even thought about by anyone ever. The 2009 off season had significantly less spending than the year before and the only free agent Major league signing they had were Chan Ho Park, Randy Winn and Nick Johnson, none of whom were even remotely successful. The Yankees did complete two big trades for Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez, but no big contracts like in 2008. The biggest note of the off season for baseball was the trading of Roy Halladay to the Phillies and many had wondered why the Yankees did not try and pry him loose from the Jays. In retrospect the Yankees should have tried harder to pursue Halladay and should have left Vazquez in Atlanta, but that's hindsight and the Yankees had good reason to believe Vazquez would do well as he was coming off a great 2009. The Yankees could have had Halladay and in my off season that could have been I want to show what that deal could have looked like.
Obviously the Yankees would have to give more than Kyle Drabek and change like the Philies did because they are in the AL East, but the Yankees have a great farm system and an ace up their sleeve. The Jays would have probably wanted the Yankees top Pitching prospect (at the time) Zach Mcallister, Mark Melancon, Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. Well that by itself isnt to much and so here is where the Yankees throw in their Ace they offer Austin Jackson and Austin Romine and in exchange the Yankees take Vernon Wells and his whole contract. Suddenly the Jays are very intrigued as not only do they get rid of Vernon Wells contract they also get an MLB ready Center fielder to replace him. Now the Yankees also have the option here that they can either trade/release Wells and absorb his contract or use him in LF/CF with Gardner and Swisher instead of trading for Granderson. The Yankees have added one of greatest pitchers ever to their Rotation and now look even more like world series favorites, but they do still have two pieces that were gone after last off season and those are Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera. If the Yankees traded Wells then they could still follow through with the Granderson deal but instead of Coke, Jackson and Kennedy they offer Coke, Kennedy, Melky and Albaladejo for Granderson. This also adds in an intresting notion that the Yankees could have signed Hisanori Takahashi instead of the Mets as they would have no real Lefty depth whatsoever and he proved himself to be a great bullpen guy, plus he signed a minor league deal with the Mets. While were hopeing lets say that the Yankees had made an offer to Hideki Matsui for 1-year deal and as a result the DH position stays reliable, now the Yankees still would have likely ran into the same Bullpenn issues that they did this year but their stacked rotation would have likely been able to overcome those issues until a trade was made and who knows maybe Gregg would have been signed instead of CHOP. Either way you are looking at a World Series in 2010 and more down the road. In the end the Phillies got Halladay and he won the NL Cy Young and threw two no hitters and the Yankees will still win another World Series soon even if they have to go through Halladay and Lee to get to 28.