2012: Payroll, the Sox and more

Before anyone says that its way to early to talk about 2012 when 2011 hasn't even started yet, I know and I also know that I already did a post on the future of the rotation. I got to thinking about this when I was listening to to RAB radio show and they talked about the Yankees payroll for this year which they think will likely come in at around $190 million which seems very likely and the only real factor left is who will get the 4th, 5th starter and long man job. My bet is that 4th and 5th rotation spots go to Colon and Nova while the long man job goes to Garcia and Mitre is DFA. The Yankees are looking for another quality Starting pitcher, but unfortunately so is half of the MLB and the other half doesn't really have anyone that they are either a) willing to part with or b) is any good. There are a few people that the Yankees may trade for and unless they are named Andy Pettitte they will likely be around in 2012. However pitching is really the only big question mark for the Yankees in 2012, but there does exist two small ones in shortstop and catcher. If everything goes well for Jesus Montero then 2012 will likely feature Montero and Cervelli behind the plate, while the shortstop question is simply if Derek Jeter can show he is still one of the top shortstops in the AL in 2011 and can carry that over to 2012. This could be Jorge Posada's last year in the MLB and/or as a Yankee but if he shows that he can still hit the Yankees may choose to bring him back in 2012 to DH once again and he is only 39 shy on 300 HR, but he would probably get about 7-8 million or less if he did. The Yankees likely will be shedding a lot of payroll as  Damaso Marte, Jorge Posada, Russel Martin and Rafael Soriano could all come off the books, but Robinson Cano is getting a $4 million raise in 2012 and Phil and Joba could get long term extensions this coming off-season. Despite all the money leaving after this year the Yankees will likely stay pretty close to where they are now in terms of payroll even before they look at free agents. Also don't forget that CC has his opt out clause and what he will likely do is work in either a raise or simply an extension and if he does opt out he will really only do it to get a better deal with the Yankees. The Yankees will likely target a starting pitcher this season and if they don't get one or if they get a rental pitcher that they let go after the season then they will have several options but the top two are that the Yankees sign Yu Darvish or one of the B's has a unbelievable year and joins the rotation. So don't worry the Yankees payroll will in all likelihood be back over $200 million in 2012 and possibly before that.
The reason that I started doing this post was because of the talk around the inter web of the possibility that the Sox payroll will eclipse the Yankees in 2011 and beyond. If the Red Sox payroll currently stands at around $165 million and that is before the Adrian Gonzalez extension that will come pretty soon, however his salary wont count toward the luxury tax even though he will be getting around a $16 million raise. Also after this year the Red Sox will be shedding a lot of payroll as J.D drew, Papelbon, Mike Cameron, Ortiz and more will all be entering free agency and unlikely to re-sign. I also doubt that the Red Sox will add anyone significant through free agency as Kalish or Reddick will likely move to RF and other than catcher there is no area that they will sign a long term free agent. If Adrian Gonzalez is 100% by opening day and stays that way he is likely going to run away with the AL MVP award, however shoulder surgery is huge and you never know what will happen. Also it is never good when the only person on your offense not added through free agency to play 150 games was Marco Scutaro and the only other people who played more than 110 games was JD Drew and David Ortiz.

Some guy who only played 75 games in 2010

Also in 2012 Bud Selig has said that he will step down as commissioner of Baseball and hopefully we will be able to get a commissioner who doesn't think that General Doubleday invented Baseball. However he wants to go and teach History at the University of Wisconsin which I find odd, not that he wants to do it at his Alma mater, but that somebody would have Prof. Selig former commissioner of Baseball as a Professor.