Pondering Phil

Phil Pondering Pitching

As a prospect Phil Hughes was supposed to be the next Yankee ace, but that never came about. But this last season Phil put together his most complete season as a starter by being solid all season, not including early April. He wasn’t an ace, but he was definitely a very good mid rotation pitcher in the toughest division in baseball and a less than friendly home stadium. However Phil Hughes home run rate bordered on comical as he gave up 35 home runs in 32 starts of the regular season and gave up two more in two starts in the postseason for a total of 37 home runs in 200 innings and that’s with giving up 92 earned runs all year.  Obviously his home run rate of 1.6 HR/9 and 2.2 HR/9 in Yankee Stadium makes it seem that he cannot survive long term as a Yankee starter as hitters parks and fly ball pitchers typically don’t mix.  Despite the homeruns it cannot be forgotten that Phil Hughes is just 26 and as he enters his last year of arbitration a decision about Phil’s Puture in Pinstripes needs to be made. There are three possibilities for Phil; the Yankees can sign Hughes to a multi-year deal, they can trade him or they can simply let him hit free agency after the 2013 season. All three are valid options and you can justify each of them as beneficial to the Yankees.

Multi-year deal

As I said Phil Hughes’s Home run rate is not sustainable long term in Yankee stadium unless something changes, but a three year deal in the $22-28 range would likely benefit both sides. The deal would provide security in the middle of the Yankees rotation without hurting the Yankees financial flexibility of the $189 million budget. As much as the Yankees would like to go cheap with a starter, they will probably need Hughes for the next several seasons or at least a pitcher like Hughes who can eat innings. Even if Nova bounces back and Pineda comes back healthy then the Yankees would still need to fill two rotation spots and it would be much easier if they had a guy like Hughes who can be effective and eat innings. The Yankees would be banking on Hughes maintaining his success from 2012, but even if he doesn’t and he is forced to shift to the bullpen Hughes does have a history of being a very good late inning reliever. There is also little evidence to suggest that his performance is not sustainable as his struggles in 2011 have been attributed to his heavy workload in 2010 and injuries. In 2012 Hughes didn’t falter down the stretch like he did in 2010 and the possibility of keeping a solid innings eater for the next three years seems to be worth the risk.

Trade

The Yankees have several holes that need to be filled this offseason and trading Hughes for an outfielder would fill their right field need. Numerous teams would be interested in Hughes as teams need pitching and a team like the twins has outfielders to spare, with a desperate need for consistent starting pitching. Unfortunately with only one year of team control left the Yankees would not get a significant piece without including more pieces to get a young cheap player, otherwise they would be targeting players like Josh Willingham or Corey Hart who are in their thirties and have a limited amount of team control left. Quite frankly I think that if the Yankees traded a starter it would more likely be David Phelps as he had some success last year and still has at least six more seasons of team control left and trading him would not leave a gaping hole in the Yankee rotation.

Let him walk

This is Hughes’s last season of arbitration after which he will be a free agent and could definitely benefit from moving to a more pitcher friendly park. If he can carry over his success from 2012 to 2013 most teams would be interested in Phil when he hits free agency. The Dodgers and Angels both could be interested and Hughes is a Southern California native so he may want to go and pitch close to home. One big team that should also be accounted for is San Francisco who could potentially be saying goodbye to Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum after 2013 and Phil would thrive in AT&T Park. The Yankees also may not want to commit more money to Hughes as they try and get in their $189 million budget and they could feel confident in their young pitching being able to plug the holes without Hughes. However in this scenario the Yankees would get nothing for Hughes as they would not give him a qualifying offer and so when he left they would receive no draft compensation as they would have under the previous model.

As I said there is validity to following any of these models, but in my mind the best option would be for the Yankees to sign Hughes to a short term extension as it will provide security for Hughes and the Yankees and take one less worry out of the near future.