Pondering Phil

Phil Pondering Pitching

As a prospect Phil Hughes was supposed to be the next Yankee ace, but that never came about. But this last season Phil put together his most complete season as a starter by being solid all season, not including early April. He wasn’t an ace, but he was definitely a very good mid rotation pitcher in the toughest division in baseball and a less than friendly home stadium. However Phil Hughes home run rate bordered on comical as he gave up 35 home runs in 32 starts of the regular season and gave up two more in two starts in the postseason for a total of 37 home runs in 200 innings and that’s with giving up 92 earned runs all year.  Obviously his home run rate of 1.6 HR/9 and 2.2 HR/9 in Yankee Stadium makes it seem that he cannot survive long term as a Yankee starter as hitters parks and fly ball pitchers typically don’t mix.  Despite the homeruns it cannot be forgotten that Phil Hughes is just 26 and as he enters his last year of arbitration a decision about Phil’s Puture in Pinstripes needs to be made. There are three possibilities for Phil; the Yankees can sign Hughes to a multi-year deal, they can trade him or they can simply let him hit free agency after the 2013 season. All three are valid options and you can justify each of them as beneficial to the Yankees.

Multi-year deal

As I said Phil Hughes’s Home run rate is not sustainable long term in Yankee stadium unless something changes, but a three year deal in the $22-28 range would likely benefit both sides. The deal would provide security in the middle of the Yankees rotation without hurting the Yankees financial flexibility of the $189 million budget. As much as the Yankees would like to go cheap with a starter, they will probably need Hughes for the next several seasons or at least a pitcher like Hughes who can eat innings. Even if Nova bounces back and Pineda comes back healthy then the Yankees would still need to fill two rotation spots and it would be much easier if they had a guy like Hughes who can be effective and eat innings. The Yankees would be banking on Hughes maintaining his success from 2012, but even if he doesn’t and he is forced to shift to the bullpen Hughes does have a history of being a very good late inning reliever. There is also little evidence to suggest that his performance is not sustainable as his struggles in 2011 have been attributed to his heavy workload in 2010 and injuries. In 2012 Hughes didn’t falter down the stretch like he did in 2010 and the possibility of keeping a solid innings eater for the next three years seems to be worth the risk.

Trade

The Yankees have several holes that need to be filled this offseason and trading Hughes for an outfielder would fill their right field need. Numerous teams would be interested in Hughes as teams need pitching and a team like the twins has outfielders to spare, with a desperate need for consistent starting pitching. Unfortunately with only one year of team control left the Yankees would not get a significant piece without including more pieces to get a young cheap player, otherwise they would be targeting players like Josh Willingham or Corey Hart who are in their thirties and have a limited amount of team control left. Quite frankly I think that if the Yankees traded a starter it would more likely be David Phelps as he had some success last year and still has at least six more seasons of team control left and trading him would not leave a gaping hole in the Yankee rotation.

Let him walk

This is Hughes’s last season of arbitration after which he will be a free agent and could definitely benefit from moving to a more pitcher friendly park. If he can carry over his success from 2012 to 2013 most teams would be interested in Phil when he hits free agency. The Dodgers and Angels both could be interested and Hughes is a Southern California native so he may want to go and pitch close to home. One big team that should also be accounted for is San Francisco who could potentially be saying goodbye to Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum after 2013 and Phil would thrive in AT&T Park. The Yankees also may not want to commit more money to Hughes as they try and get in their $189 million budget and they could feel confident in their young pitching being able to plug the holes without Hughes. However in this scenario the Yankees would get nothing for Hughes as they would not give him a qualifying offer and so when he left they would receive no draft compensation as they would have under the previous model.

As I said there is validity to following any of these models, but in my mind the best option would be for the Yankees to sign Hughes to a short term extension as it will provide security for Hughes and the Yankees and take one less worry out of the near future.

Top 5 things the Yankees need to do this offseason

A big part of the Yankees offseason

The baseball season is just about over and unfortunately it is not ending with a New York Yankees World Series win. In fact the Yankees blew their best chance to win the series since 2009 by having their bats disappear in the postseason and now they need to retool for next season. Here are the top 5 things the Yankees need to do for next season .

1. Resign Hiroki Kuroda
This is by far the most critical part of the offseason and if the Yankees want to bounce back from their poor performance they will need to resign Hiroki Kuroda. He transitioned to the AL by having the best season of his career and that's in Yankee stadium. Kuroda was the number two pitcher the Yankees have been looking for, for a long time and if they need to give him a two year deal they absolutely should in order to bring back Hiroki.

2. Right Field
The Yankees have any number of possibilities for Right Field next season and while Nick Swisher is by far the best solution, it seems unlikely that the Yankees will bring him back next season due to his price tag. For all the complaints about Swishers struggles in the postseason the Yankees really need his switch hitting bat and it will be a lot cheaper to give Swisher 3-4 years than try and sign Curtis Granderson after he hits free agency. If the Yankees let Swisher and Granderson walk then they may need to fill two Outfield spots after next season  and we do not even know if they will be able to fill one spot internally. To me the most likely scenario is that the Yankees bring back Ichiro Suzuki or they trade for an Outfielder as there are not many free agent options for the Yankees who want to stay in their budget for 2014. Bringing Ichiro wouldn't be the worst scenario, but he would be 39 and while he may be able to flash a little more power he will be 39. The Yankees would also need to count on Ichiro's resurgence into next year and hope the hot month he had with the Yankees wasn't a fluke.

3. Catcher
This one is very straight forward. The Yankees are going to need to bring back Russel Martin because the free agent and trade market for catchers is pretty barren. Napoli isn't really a catcher, AJ Piezynski is a jerk/old and Olivio is terrible. Martin is the best option and if they don't bring him back then they will need to platoon Cervelli and Stewart and they don't want to do that. Its pretty much Martin or bust for the Yankees.

4. Resign Andy Pettitte
Some may balk that this is 4th, but really this may be a little high for Pettitte. I did initially ponder putting this with Kuroda, but really its much less important for Pettitte to return as it is for Kuroda. Pettitte surprised everybody with his comeback and made a big impact, we just don't know what he will be able to contribute next season. That being said the Yankees want him back, Pettitte just needs to decide if he wants to come back.

5. Bench
The bench doesn't seem like a huge thing but it is going to be very important next season as well in the foreseeable future because of the age of the Yankees roster. The Yankees do not know how many how many games Jeter or ARod will be able to play in the field next season so a good bench is critical. Recently Brian Cashman said that they want Eduardo Nunez to play everyday at short stop and he could potentially play short 60-70 games next season and possibly even more next season depending on Jeters recovery from his surgery. If they don't want Nunez to do that then they will need to acquire somebody who can play short stop frequently as Jeter is defiantly going to need to have a lot of rest, especially at the beginning of the season. Despite his abysmal postseason ARod is going to be okay and is going to be the primary 3rd baseman, but he and Jeter will probably be the primary DH's so somebody will need to be able to step in as the 3rd baseman frequently. If Eric Chavez returns I expect that he will fill that role, but that is in no way a certainty and he has frequently said that his previous injuries have made playing very painful for him. If Chavez does not return then there is a good chance that the bench spot would be filled internally by Corban Jospeh or David Adams both of whom are probably major league ready. The backup catcher will probably be Chris Stewart again  but after that their bench will depend on what their answer in Right Field will be.

I was initially going to include signing both Hughes and Cano to extensions and while I do believe that these are important they do not affect 2013. In Cano's case I feel that he will wait until he hits free agency as he will want a big deal and there is a very real chance that the Los Angeles Dodgers will outbid the Yankees for Cano. In Hughes's case the Yankees should sign him to an extension but it is not critical to the 2013 team. That being said I will have a post up about Phil Hughes and extension possibilities.

The myth of the Yankees inability to develop pitching

Shhh, Nova doesnt know the Yankees can't develop Starting pitching

The Yankees cannot develop pitchers....thats the narrative, their organization is incapable of developing a single good pitcher which is why they need to buy pitchers. The problem of course is that its a total myth, the Yankees have been developing pitchers consistently the last few years but people have been looking at the failure of Joba Chamberlain as a starting pitcher and saying that the Yankee organization is incapable of developing pitchers. Yes the Yankees messed up Joba in 2009 with their stupid Joba rules,  he had that amazing run in 2008 but he needed more development time after pitching only half a season in the minors. He had great stuff and the Yankees rushed him and they got burned, it happens to everybody, for all the praise the Rays get for player development they have a ton of draft busts or players that underwhelmed or burned out. Part of the problem is that New York is different, somebody can pitch through a bad year if you play in Minnesota or San Diego, but in New York you do badly and your out the door. I talked about this in the first A True Yankee podcast, but people seem to have this idea that teams should develop these ace pitchers, but the only team who seems to develop pitchers out of nothing is the Rays; its a crap shoot, some pitching prospects succeed some don't. The Giants trio of Lincium, Cain and Bumbgardner being good isnt a sign of how good they are at developing pitchers, these guys were all 1st round draft picks that were expected to be good. The Yankees had their big three in Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and despite the idea that the big three was a bust they are all successful Major league pitcher, I know the Killer B's have been a bust but not all prospects work out.

Lets also take a look at the starting pitchers that were developed in the Yankees system the last few years: Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Zach Mcallister, Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Hector Noesi, Chien-Ming Wang, Jeff Karstens, Ted Lilly. Ian Kennedy was the highest draft pick of any of these pitchers at 21st overall so the Yankees miss out on the cream of the crop in terms of pitching talent, but still if you include Jose Quintana then the Yankees account for 10 of the 150 Starting pitchers in baseball right now or two full team rotations, that seems pretty good to me.

To be fair this talk has died down a little since Nova came on the scene and Hughes turned his season around but I wonder if people will still be talking about this stuff in the next few years as the Yankees look to rely more on their homegrown players to keep costs down. If in 2013 the rotation is 3/5 homegrown pitchers is it still gonna be said the Yankees cannot develop pitchers. Lets also be clear in that the Yankees have been been better than anyone in finding Power arms late in the draft and turning them into great bullpen pieces. Part of the problem is that the Yankees have a fan base and media following that wants five aces and anything less than that is not going to be good enough. The fact that the Yankees have not only survived their starting pitcher injuries but have flourished is a testament to their pitching depth and you get depth by developing pitchers. If you wanna read a little bit more detail about this topic check out this article written by Greg Corcoran of Bronx baseball daily.

Boone Logan is last Yankee to settle on arbitration

Boone Logan and the Yankees avoided arbitration by signing Logan to a $1.875 million deal for 2012. By doing this the Yankees settled with their last arbitration eligible player and paid a grand total of $16.775 to their six arbitration eligible players. The list is as follows:

Boone Logan- $1.875
Logan was the Yankees only lefty out of the pen last season and while a solid arm he was inconsistent at times and could be the only lefty in the pen again this year. He did have some very good outing against the Sox in particular last season.

David Robertson- $1.6 million
This was Robertson's first arbitration year and its a nice pay increase from the league minimum salary that he was making the last 3 years. If he does what he did last year again he will get a good raise next year.

Joba Chamberlain- $1.675 million
While it may seem odd that Joba got payed more than Robertson considering that Joba only pitched 28 innings last year because of his injury. But arbitration is also largely based on service time and it was his second year of arbitration. He got a lot less than he might have.

Phil Hughes- $3.2 million
perfect example of how its based on service time. After his 2010 Phil Hughes got $2.7 million and with less than half the innings he pitched the year before he got a raise. Hughes however only has one year of arbitration left and so 2012 will need to be good for him.

Russel Martin- $7.5 million
After being non tendered by the Dodgers last season Martin had a good year with the Yankees and received almost double the $4 million he was paid last year. The Yankees had been talking about a two year deal with Martin before deciding on roughly the midpoint of Martins proposed $8.2 million and the Yankees $7 million. Hopefully the Yankees get another solid season from Martin in 2012.

Brett Gardner- $2.8
Like Robertson Gardner had his first year of arbitration and got a nice pay raise after making the league minimum the last three years. Gardner will look at find some offensive consistency this year in hope of signing a multi-year deal with the Yankees, while continuing to provide excellent defense.

All of these guys will be arbitration eligible again next year, except for Russel Martin who will be a free agent. Francisco Cervelli will also be arbitration eligible next season so he will have to try and stay healthy this year.

The Case for doing nothing

The Yankees have been linked to numerous free agents and trade candidates this winter but all they have done so far is resign Freddy Garcia. There are still some free agents out there and the Yankees could still trade for a starter, but the Yankees could very well end up doing what they unintentionally did last year which was stand pat. The Yankees already have five starters in CC, Hughes, Nova, Burnett and Garcia  and they also have plenty of depth at AAA with Warren, Phelps, Noesi and Mitchell all ready and Banuelos and Betances right behind them. CC is CC and will continue to be the ace of the staff while Hughes will look to bounce back from a poor 2011 and pitch like he did in 2010. Burnett for all his faults did eat inning last season and if he can bounce back to a sub 5 era then it would be very appreciated. Garcia will look to make his smoke and mirrors style of pitching work for another year and Nova will try and keep doing what he had been doing last season. The Yankees won 97 games with that rotation and Bartolo Colon so its not that strange of an idea. Also if one of the starters falters then Noesi is ready to move into the rotation, as the Yankees have been saying that he will be the next guy up to the Bronx and they aren't going to waste him as the long man this year.
The Yankees can still make a move for a starter but they have some young starters with high upsides and I think that's why they aren't that interested in  spending a lot of money or trading for a starter. They also could be hoping to pursue some of the 2012 free agents like Greinke, Hamals or Sanchez. The Yankees do want to get their payroll down and building their own starters is the best way to do that.

Future Yankee Roster Moves

Yesterday Sergio Mitre was reacquired by the Yankees from the Brewers for cash and Buddy Carlyle was Designated for assignment. Some people have become very upset about this due to a fear that Joe Girardi will use Mitre in high leverage outings like he did with Chad Gaudin. The problem of course is that Girardi didn't use Gaudin in high leverage situations that were not extra innings in any situation except for one in September. You may remember it was the game were he walked in the tying run in the sixth and then we scored 4 in the bottom of the inning, that was an odd choice but it was one incident and despite what some people may think Mitre is not that bad of a pitcher and he is definitely a good pickup for injury rocked bullpen. Also if he is bad then they can just release him, its an easy and smart decision. Plus for all of you who wanted to keep Buddy, I doubt he is going to get picked up so he will back in AAA being mediocre.
This trade made me think of the upcoming roster moves that the Yankees will need to make with players returning from the disabled list. Bartolo Colon will be an easy one as the Yankees will more than likely send down Brian Gordon unless they think Gordon is a better choice in the bullpen than Noesi. Its also easy to see that when Jeter comes back that Pena will be sent down because the Yankees want Nunez to get more AB in the big leagues.
Phil Hughes is looking like he may be back for a start before the all star break and when he comes back not only will the Yankees need to make a 25 man roster move but they will also need to make a 40 man roster move because Hughes has been on the 60 day DL. I think what is likely to happen is that the Yankees will choose to send down Ivan Nova to AAA and Hughes will take his rotation spot and they will also DFA someone likely Jeff Marquez or Kanekoa Texeira to clear the 40 man spot. While the Yankees would probably prefer to keep Nova in the rotation they likely will not want to sacrifice the depth that they have with Nova sitting in AAA in case any of the 4 non Sabathia starters breaks down or prove ineffective and chances are that one of them will. If all the starters stay healthy then in September then they can use Nova to keep everybody fresh for the playoffs or give him Garcias rotation spot and use Garcia as a spot starter.
Soriano's return likely will not be  before the allstar break as reports indicate that he is just getting ready to throw off a mound. When he eventually returns you will likely see whomever was not DFA for Hughes DFA here and either Hector Noesi or Corey Wade will be sent down. Wade or Noesi will likely depend on who looks better before Soriano's return, but if I had to guess I would say that it would be Noesi who gets sent down.
Another person who we have almost forgotten about is corners infielder Eric Chavez who looks like he may return after the all star break and the Yankees will be glad to have him back. The spot he will take is easy as Chris Dickerson will get sent down to AAA because right now the Yankees don't really need a 5th outfielder. To put him back on the 40 man the Yankees will have to make an interesting decision as they wont want to DFA Chris Dickerson with both Colin Curtis and Justin Maxwell done for the season. What they could do is promote Justin Maxwell to the Yankees and then immediately put him on the 60 day DL which would clear up his 40 man spot and he would be happy because he would make the league minimum salary despite not actually playing. They could DFA a pitcher but my guess is that they will want to keep as much pitching depth around as possible.
Mark Prior is a guy who we haven't heard from lately and while he is recovering I kind of doubt that he will make a big league appearance this year. Prior is just now starting to throw off a mound and is going to have to rehab in the low minors to come back and pitch in AAA. He could be ready for the MLB by September but he needs to prove himself in AAA before a roster move can even be considered and even then I don't know if they will want to make a roster move to put him on the 40 man. At this point I hope that Prior sticks around so that he can try and make the bullpen next year out of spring training.

I'd also like to point out that Gustavo Molina is still on the 40 man and not Jesus Montero and neither is Montero in the Bronx where he should be.



Seriously why is he still in AAA?



Phil Hughes New Britain Rehab Start

Its very nice to get a post in dealing with some real Yankees news that's happening in CT and since I go to school in New Britain getting to the game was fairly easy. When I saw that the Trenton Thunder were coming to play the New Britain Rock Cats I had already decided to go back in April due to my hope of seeing Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Pat Venditte, Melky Mesa and Austin Romine. Then of course it was announced that Hughes would make his rehab start at Fridays game and I was very excited to go, especially since there was no chance of Venditte pitching due to throwing 60 pitches the day before and Mesa has been on the DL. It also looked like Romine would not play but he was activated for that game. Hughes start was printed in the local paper and a lot of Connecticut Yankee fans came out to see him pitch.
I came with my girlfriend who is an even bigger fan than I and we were handed a pair of free tickets as we walked up to the box office which was cool. Hughes  fastball velocity was consistent in the low 90's staying at 91-92 for the entire game with one 89 mph fastball that I saw during his outing. He did seem to be having some issues with locating the ball, however he did seem to be dealing with a slightly erratic strike zone. He did seem to struggle to put away batters which concerns me because that was his issue last year, he would get 2 strikes on a batter and be unable to put them away. He did also suffer from a poor defensive play that likely should have gotten him out of the inning. I don't know why it wasnt scored an error but Jose Pirella, who already has 17 errors in 63 games at SS this year, caught the ball on the ground and instead of immediately doing a quick throw to the second baseman he laid on the ground for several seconds and then threw the ball to second baseman Corban Joseph who then tried to get the out at first. If the play had been done correctly the run would not have scored and Hughes would have completed 4 innings instead of 3.1. That being said Hughes definitely needs some more rehab work because if he was MLB ready then he never should have had an issue at all. I expect that Hughes will make another rehab start in AA and then move on to AAA. Here are some photos and video of a fly out that Hughes got in the game.

Romine did a good job behind the plate and made a good block on a breaking ball in the dirt and I was very happy to see him catch. Also Kruml's HR was an absolute bomb that went out to right center and was a good 6 feet above the 20ft wall out there. I would have liked to have stayed the whole game but my girlfriend was suffering from a massive migraine and the screaming kids and stadium lights did not help, so I did not get to see the walk off walk that was achieved by the Rock Cats. Here are some more photos.

Kruml High Five after hitting his HR

Lyerlay at 1B

Lyerlay at bat

Austin Romine during infield warmups

Notes 5/3/11

Well Francisco Liriano threw the first no hitter of the year against the offensively struggling White Sox. He walked 6 batters and ironically faced Edwin Jackson. A full month in the most surprising thing is that's only Liriano's second win and both teams are in the basement of the AL central while the Royals and Indians lead. Before anyone even thinks about it the Yankees will not trade Montero for Liriano and honestly I do not think that there is a single pitcher available that the Yankees would be interested in trading Montero for.
My bold prediction of the year is that Liriano's no hitter will be the only one of the year and Liriano is more likely to be traded than Montero.

Phil Hughes dosen't have some rare vascular disorder and so that means that the Yankees are back to having no idea what is wrong with him. I miss Philthy Phil and I want him back soon.

The Yankees looked pretty pathetic today against Brad Penny and CC looked bad. Is it just me or does A-Jax hit CC really well? 

The Yankees need some Starting Pitching but where are they going to get it from and what will they have to give up for decent Starting pitchers?

4/3 Yankees and other notes

The Yankees failed to sweep the tigers as Hughes and Colon both got roughed up by the Tigers 10-7. The two teams combined for 14 HR, with 7 of those coming in today's loss. Here are some notes on the Yankees:

• Burnett looked okay, but he was apparently sick during the game so hopefully that means he will be even better next time around as he should likely be facing off against Francisco Liriano and the Twins.
• This first series was utterly forgettable for Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter as both combined for 4 hits and those all came in Saturdays game. But it is only 3 games so should be nothing to worry about.
• After Eduardo Nunez's error in Saturdays game I already want Ramiro Pena back.
• Russel Martin is hitting .455, A-Rod .400 and slow start Tex has 3 HR and 7 RBI's after 3 games. (He had 9 RBI's all last April) check it out
• I know its one start and its one start against one of the best offenses in baseball, but I am really concerned about Phil Hughes. He looks like he did last year after the all-star break and his velocity is still down. He gave up 5 runs on 5 hits in 4 innings. He could not put batters away racking up 1 K in 90 pitches.He needs to make a change NOW because his next start is against the Sox in Fenway.
• Bartolo Colon was a mixed bag with 5K's in 4 innings, but he gave up 4 runs and 6 hits in 4 innings. Mitre did better than that. However its only April, but I still would prefer Aceves.(who is in Sox AAA to start the season)
• The Sox got swept by the Rangers and while both teams offense's looked good the Red Sox pitching was very poor and their $142 million dollar man got bumped down to 7th today. Dropping Crawford in the order from 3rd to 7th really surprised me as its the 3rd game and they just payed him 142 million small market scrappy dollars and i wouldn't want to start off 7 years by dropping him down after two games.
• Bad news for the Rays as Evan Longoria was put on the DL for an oblique strain and he will miss at least 3 weeks according to Joe Madden. Also Manny and Damon have combined for a grand total of 1 hit and Damon was scratched today due to calf tightness.
• O's are in first, Toronto and the Yankees are both tied for second and the Sox and rays are on pace for 0-162 seasons.
• All that confidence that Brewers fans about this season was crushed by the Big Red Machine. Its only April, but the Brewers looked really bad in Cinncinati and so does my pick of them to win the NL Central.
• Matt Holiday had an appendectomy. Could the Yankees try and trade for Chris Carpenter?
• The Astros look awful. Is Brett Myers as good as that one start suggests and could the Yankees target him?
• The Yankees play the Twins for the teams only meeting in the Bronx this season. Lets hope the Yankees take over from where they left off in the ALDS.