Best Moves for the AL East!

The AL east is the best division in baseball and it has possibly the three best teams in all of baseball. In the last ten years an AL East team has won six American league pennants and three world series. With the exception of the Orioles all the teams are competitive and if the last four years prove anything its that any of these teams could wind up winners.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are really bad and they are years away from competing again. They have not posted a winning record since 1997 and it seems all of their top prospects have fallen short or been injury riddled. The Orioles office and fanbase must be distressed to see the success of the Tampa Bay Rays who have fewer resources but have been competitive due to building on excellent player development. The Orioles really could use a complete reboot, but the organization is such a mess that multiple people have turned down the job to be the GM of the Orioles. They now are going to be moving forward with Dan Duquette as the GM, who last was the GM for Boston from 1994-2001. The Orioles will be futile for the next few years and the better move for them would be to try and build on undervalued pieces much like the Rays did in the beginning and focus on drafting and player development because their current system has not worked for them. The Orioles will however again overpay for a DH like Vlad Guerrero or Johnny Damon and could target a big name free agent, which is not what they should be doing right now. Blowing it up could be an option but I doubt that will help, because the issue seems to be player development, not a lack of talent. The best move may be to try and trade for some pitchers who can eat innings like they did with Tommy Hunter. A good pitcher for them to target would probably be Wandy Rodriguez as he pitches a lot of innings and does so with a sub four ERA in the last four years. That's a much better idea for the Orioles than trying to sign Prince Fielder. This is a long term project, which is unfortunate considering their lack of winning in the last 15 years.

Toronto Blue Jays
 The Jays have a nice crop of young players in the majors and in the minors and they currently posses an above average offense that will be boosted with the additions of Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie over a full year. The Jays seem like a middle market team but they are actually a big market team on par with the potential to be on par with Boston and New York. The reason the Jays aren't contending right now is that they are not quite ready for prime time as their pitching staff after Romero is still developing despite a plethora of young talented pitchers. There has been a lot of talk about the Jays trading for Votto and while it is very enticing for the Blue Jays to have a pair of talented young Canadian players at the infield corners, I think that trading for Votto will be more of an option next off season. The Blue Jays could be a breakout team for this season but I think 2013 is a much more likely possibility for them, as this year should be focused on developing their starters and figuring out what they will do at Shortstop, Second base and Left Field. The Jays currently have Yunel Escobar at Shortstop, but they have Adeiny Hechavarria who is number nine on the top ten shortstops prospects in baseball. For this reason the Jays will likely try and resign Kelly Johnson to a one year deal before transitioning Hechavarria or Escobar to second. Some people think that the Jays will pursue David Ortiz but they are much more likely to stick with Edwin Encarnacion at DH due to Encarnacion being under contract for 2012 for just $3.5 million and Ortiz's production likely to decline in the next few years. The Blue Jays could be in the market for a mid level starter and left fielder like David Dejesus or Edwin Jackson, but the only big name free agent I see them pursing is a top flight closer like K-Rod or Ryan Madson, but they could end trying for a bounce back closer like Joe Nathan or Jonathon Broxton. If the Jays spend big it could very well be for a Japanese import and they very well could be the best suitor for Yu Darvish as they have the monetary resources and less pressure to succeed immediately as he would in New York. The Jays will likely be active on the trade market as they have been part of three big trades the last two seasons and their plethora of prospects haven't been diminished through any of them. The Jays have a protected draft pick due to failing to sign their 1st round draft pick and so signing a type A free agent is a possibility but its more likely they develop their prospects for a serious run in the next few years.


Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were the ultimate chokers last year as they completely fell apart in every aspect in September. On top of that their rotation is now full of question marks as is the bullpen who just lost Jonathon Papelbon to the Phillies before they even had time to make an offer. Even if they move Aceves to the rotation then they open up another hole in their bullpen and still need to add another starter. They also are reportedly pursing Carlos Beltran and while this isnt a good move it may be the best option for them. Signing Beltran would be risky and they may be better suited to putting Josh Reddick in Right Field, but I think they will feel the need to make a big splash and signing Beltran could be that move. Reddick could very likely prove to be a valuable trade piece especially since the Boston farm system was proven to be not nearly as good as Boston had been claiming. The idea of Reddick for Wandy Rodriguez has come up and it could be a very good one for Boston to make as Wandy has pitched at least 190 innings for three years and the Astros are looking to move him. The good news for Boston is that they do not need to pursue top of the rotation arms, but they need to find a pair of back of the rotation arms and build depth because they have zero depth options in AAA as last seasons collapse proved. The Red Sox AAA depth is so bad that if D.J Mitchell had been with them he would have been the best rotation candidate by far and its possible that he will not even have a rotation spot at the Yankees AAA this coming season. The Sox will be looking for a bounce back year from Carl Crawford and a healthy year from Kevin Youkillis but will need good depth because neither is guaranteed to happen and Youkillis's health is even more in doubt. The Red Sox will likely have Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro for Shortstop and infield bench help, so the focus will be almost entirely on their pitching. While the Sox could try and sign the top free agent pitches, it would probably be better for them to invest in several low risk High reward pitchers like the Yankees did with Colon and Garcia.The Red Sox will also need to hope that Buchholz and Becket can stay healthy because they really can not afford anymore losses to their rotation and they both had trouble staying healthy. The Red Sox will want to have a good year and make the playoffs or else they will be looked at the number three team in the division behind the Yankees and Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays
 The Rays have been able to build a consistent contender with a limited payroll, no fan support and a bad stadium. The Rays actually have too much pitching depth and will likely trade one or more starters to try and boost their offense. The Rays could sign a veteran DH like they did with Johnny Damon but a better option may be for them to trade for options offense rather than sign it. The best fit is probably the Kansas City Royals who have 1st/DH prospect Clint Robinson who really should be in the majors but there is nowhere for him with Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler blocking him. A trade of Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann for Clint Robinson would seem to be ideal to me as he would provide the team with six years of a cheap DH rather than spending $5 million a year on older players. Also as good as B.J Upton is the team will probably look to move him for prospects and the team that will likely be the most interested is the Washington Nationals who could prove especially enticing if the team does not resign Casey Kotchman as they can trade prospect Chris Marrero who would also be a young cheap player under team control for several more years. The Rays could try and lock up Kotchman but that would depend on their beleif that this was a breakout year for Kotchman and that he can hit for the average that he did this season over the course of the deal. It may be better for the Rays to take the money they would give to Kotchman and a free agent DH and instead focusing on trying to extend David Price and Matt Joyce. The one problem for the Rays if they do trade B.J Upton then they will need to decide if they trust Brandon Guyer as the everyday left fielder because otherwise they will be having Sam Fuld take a lot more AB then he should. If the Rays can improve their offense then they could easily be the division favorites with the best rotation in the AL East. The biggest concern for the Rays however will continue to be how to get people through the door as consistent contention and three playoff appearances in the last four years hasn't been able to do it.

New York Yankees
The Yankees won the division despite the nearly universal assumption that the Red Sox would win. The good news for the Yankees is that they have no real holes and instead will be focusing on upgrading their rotation and possibly finding a LOOGY. Several options have been raised for the Yankees rotation but the two best are probably signing Yu Darvish and/ or trading for John Danks. The Yankees have a plethora of back of the rotation arms and they should definitely let Noesi, Warren and Phelps compete with Burnett and Hughes for their spots in the rotation. The Yankees want a top of the rotation arm and either could be that option but neither is guaranteed. People tend to bash Asian pitchers but just because Kei Igawa and Dice-K failed does not mean you should forget about players like Hiroki Kuroda who has been great since coming over. Its also entirely possible that the Yankees could retain Freddy Garcia and stop there but that would be a little surprising for them to skip out on the top pitchers two years in a row. The Yankees also have a lot of trade pieces that they will likely try to move as they are starting to create a logjam behind the plate and in the AAA rotation. The Yankees will almost definitely try and move Austin Romine or Francisco Cervelli this off season and will have to either move somebody to the bullpen or trade them. They could end up trading for prospects, bench or bullpen help or make a big deal for Starter or a Right Fielder. The best move for the Yankees after adding a starter would probably be to put Burnett on a short leash and if he starts to consistently struggle to move him to the bullpen and give one of the prospects a shot in the rotation, it sucks but the Yankees shouldn't be putting out a bad pitcher every five games if they have a better option. I would also recommend letting Joba try starting again as he comes back from Tommy John surgery because the worst case scenario is he doesn't seem to have it and you move him back to the bullpen while he rehabs, but I do not expect the Yankees will do this.

There is no clear favorite for the AL East this season and as we saw last year being the favorite means nothing. That being said how much better will the Sox and Yankees be if Carl Crawford, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira can have better years? And how good will the Rays be with Matt Moore, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson and David Price all in the rotation?