Saturday, November 26, 2011

The Case for John Danks

 Well it appears that the Yankees are going to bring back Freddy Garcia, so technically with CC Sabathia resigned they could call it an off season with a rotation of Sabathia, Nova, Garcia, Hughes and Burnett but I really hope they don't do that. Garcia was good last year but a back end guy and what he really should do is compete with Burnett and Hughes for the 4th and 5th spot with the loser moving to the bullpen. That being said the Yankees should upgrade the rotation and there are a number of options for how they can do it of which I will be profiling.

Could Danks be a Yankee soon?
The best option may be Chicago White Sox starter John Danks who has had a lot of trade talk surrounding him this off season with White Sox GM Kenny Williams talking about rebuilding and trading Danks or Floyd. Danks is 26 and in his last year of arbitration and is coming off a down year in 2011. There was also a recent article by David Cameron on Fangraphs that showed the remarkable similarities between John Danks and Edwin Jackson despite the general assumption that Danks is a better pitcher than Jackson. Even Jackson's HR/9 and  HR/FB rates are better than Danks however it should be noted that Jackson has mostly pitched in pitchers parks while Danks has always pitched in the hitter friendly cellular field, but the point remains. While Danks may be overvalued it also could be argued that the fault is more in undervaluing Edwin Jackson. Some people have actually compared John Danks to Andy Pettitte  and there are some similarities and it would be great if Danks could emulate Pettitte as they are both big Lefties who grew up in Texas and their stats are pretty similar through their first five seasons. While Danks stuff may be a bit in question the reason that Danks could be such a good match is that the Yankees and White Sox may watch up well for a trade.

John Danks has actually gotten rocked in his six starts against the Yankees going 2-3 with a 7.11 ERA, giving up 25 ER in 31.1 IP. He got knocked around for four runs in six innings in one start against the Yankees in Chicago. He really hasn't pitched well against the AL East but other than the Jays he has pitched well against them away from Cellular field and his new one start at Yankee stadium in 2010 was decent. Granted past success doesn't dictate future success as A.J Burnett will tell you.

The White Sox are looking to rebuild and the Yankees have a bit of a logjam at a few positions of need for the White Sox. Ideally the Yankees would like to make a trade for Danks surrounding Francisco Cervelli but the the White Sox will probably ask for Eduardo Nunez or Austin Romine and the Yankees could center a package around either of those guys. While the Yankees could offer a package surrounding Nunez I find it much more likely that they will try and offer Romine with Phelps or Mitchell with another minor league piece or two, with the options of one of the out of options OF tandem of Dickerson,Maxwell, Golson or someone like Kevin Russo, a Cervelli package would probably look very similar as would a Nunez deal. The only way I can see the White Sox wanting Francisco Cervelli over Austin Romine is if they trade A.J Pierzynski and even then they may prefer Romine. More likely they will want one of the killer b's or Noesi or maybe someone like Mason Williams or Slade Heathcott. Even after a down year Danks is a very valuable piece but the Yankees aren't going to give up the farm for a guy who is one year away from free agency and that's why I would be surprised if they gave up Banuelos or Betances to get Danks. The off-season has only just begun and we probably wont see anything happen until after the winter meetings in December.

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