Saturday, March 10, 2012

Swisher vs. Martin

One of the biggest storyline's this spring training has been Hal Steinbrenner reasserting that the Yankees will try and be under the luxury tax when it rises to $189 million in 2014. This has been met with some skepticism since the Yankees have Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez all making $20 million a year until at least 2016 and Robinson Cano may soon join them. This has led to some speculation about this seasons soon to be free agents of Nick Swisher and Russel Martin. The problem for the Yankees is that these guys are going to be looking for long term deals as well as their first and likely only large free agent payday.
Swisher is going to be the best power hitting outfielder available on the market with the possible exception of B.J Upton. Swisher has been a good supporting piece for the Yankees since they got him from the White Sox and his personality has been loved in New York, but he has been criticized for struggling in the postseason and some fans wanted to see the Yankees dump him and sign Carlos Beltran. Swisher is making $10.5 million this season and will be looking at making more money with this new deal. The problem facing the Yankees is that they really have no good internal options for the Outfield options that will be ready by next season and a platoon would be most likely.
Russel Martin is a more recent example and both he and the Yankees expressed interest in signing a long term deal but a deal was never completed. Martin had a good season offensively and defensively last year and good catchers are a luxury that Yadier Molinas $75 Million deal shows. However the Yankees do have a plethora of Young cathcing and unlike Swisher, Martin could be replaced by Austin Romine. The question though is whether or not Romine could be a productive player in the majors and that's a big risk to take.
The Yankees could retain both of these players but more likely they will have to pick one and its hard to gauge who the Yankees will try and retain, but both players will be looking at 3-4 year deals with a definite possibility that Swisher could try for a fifth year on the free agent market. Both Martin and Swisher are nice complimentary pieces who have hit in the bottom third of the lineup and while I think the Yankess may wish to retain Swisher more than Martin, the market may end up pricing Swisher out of the Yankees range. Do not forget Jayson Werth received a huge deal last offseason and Swisher could get a team to overpay him like the Nationals did with Werth. There also exists the possibility that the Yankees will retain neither player and opt to trade or sign a cheaper Swisher and Martin solution or simply go with their current internal options. If I had to pick a player for them to retain it would be Swisher, but I think it is more likely that they will retain Russel Martin as I expect that Swisher will become too expensive for the Yankees to put in their new plans and a team like the Dodgers, who will have new ownership, may look to add one one of the biggest bats on the market.

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